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Developing the PAGE2002 Model with Endogenous Technical Change

Author

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  • Alberth, S.
  • Hope, C.

Abstract

Presented research demonstrates the inclusion of endogenous technical change into the PAGE2002 integrated assessment model of climate change. The ‘experience curve’ or learning-by-doing concept, made popular by the Boston Consulting Group during the 1960’s provides a mechanism with which to describe cost reduction through experiential learning. The implementation of learning requires both a restructuring of the way costs are modelled as well as the inclusion of an explicit learning function with initial abatement costs and learning coefficients calibrated to historical renewable energy data. The discounted values for total abatement costs are calculated for both the standard PAGE2002 model without an explicit learning function and the modified PAGE2002 model. The results were found to be of a similar magnitude, partially due to the myopic effects of discounting, though the result was found to be highly sensitive to the learning rate used, which in our case was a conservative estimate.

Suggested Citation

  • Alberth, S. & Hope, C., 2006. "Developing the PAGE2002 Model with Endogenous Technical Change," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0632, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  • Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:0632 Note: IO
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    File URL: http://www.electricitypolicy.org.uk/pubs/wp/eprg0613.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Popp, David, 2004. "ENTICE: endogenous technological change in the DICE model of global warming," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 742-768, July.
    2. Junginger, M. & Faaij, A. & Turkenburg, W. C., 2005. "Global experience curves for wind farms," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 133-150, January.
    3. Karsten Neuhoff, 2005. "Large-Scale Deployment of Renewables for Electricity Generation," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 88-110, Spring.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alberth, Stephan & Hope, Chris, 2007. "Climate modelling with endogenous technical change: Stochastic learning and optimal greenhouse gas abatement in the PAGE2002 model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1795-1807, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Endogenous Technical Change; Learning Curves; Climate Change;

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q55 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Technological Innovation
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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