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Ein System zur laufenden Messung der Knappheitsverhältnisse auf beruflichen Arbeitsmärkten in der Schweiz

Author

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  • Felder, Rahel
  • Sheldon, George

Abstract

Eine Reihe von Knappheitsindikatoren hierzulande gab in letzter Zeit einige Rätsel auf: In Berufen, in denen nach Massgabe der Indikatoren ein Überangebot an Stellensuchenden vorlag, bestand nach Auskunft von Stellenanbietern in Wirklichkeit Arbeitskräfteknappheit. Die vorliegende Studie weist nach, dass der Widerspruch daher rührt, dass sich die Indikatoren auf Bestandsgrössen (Arbeitslose, Vakanzen) abstützen. Bestandsgrössen eignen sich aber nur bedingt als Knappheitsindikatoren, da sie ihre Höhen mehrere Interpretationen zulassen. So kann sich ein hoher Bestand gleichermassen aus einer grossen Zahl von Eintritten in den Bestand (Inzidenz) als auch aus einem langen Verbleib im Bestand (Dauer) ergeben. Doch nur eine lange Verbleibdauer weist auf Probleme bei der Suche nach einer Arbeitsstelle bzw. bei der Besetzung offener Stellen hin, was Rückschlüsse auf bestehende Knappheit erlaubt. Vor diesem Hintergrund entwickeln wir ein neuartiges Indikatorsystem, das berufliche Knappheitsverhältnisse alleine an der Dauer der Suche der Arbeitslosen nach Stellen und der Firmen nach Arbeitskräften misst. Daraus ergeben sich separate Indikatoren für Arbeitskräfte- und Stellenknappheit, auf deren Basis berufliche Teilarbeitsmärkte danach ordnen lassen, ob Stellenknappheit, Arbeitskräfteknappheit, Mismatch oder Ausgeglichenheit auf ihnen besteht. Im Gegensatz zu gängigen Knappheitsindikatoren hierzulande stützen unsere Resultate die erlebte Fachkräftesituation während der Coronapandemie.

Suggested Citation

  • Felder, Rahel & Sheldon, George, 2023. "Ein System zur laufenden Messung der Knappheitsverhältnisse auf beruflichen Arbeitsmärkten in der Schweiz," Working papers 2023/10, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    • Handle: RePEc:bsl:wpaper:2023/10
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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