IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bro/econwp/2021-001.html

The Mussa Puzzle: A Generalization

Author

Listed:
  • Cosimo Petracchi

Abstract

One of the most compelling pieces of evidence for monetary non-neutrality is the Mussa puzzle, in which the break in the monetary regime when the Bretton Woods System broke down increased the volatility of not only the nominal exchange rate but the real exchange rate. Using data covering thirty-one European countries from 1954 to 2019, I find that the Mussa puzzle is generalizable: any break in a monetary regime that changes the volatility of the nominal exchange rate also changes the volatility of the real exchange rate. This provides further evidence of monetary non-neutrality.

Suggested Citation

  • Cosimo Petracchi, 2021. "The Mussa Puzzle: A Generalization," Working Papers 2021-001, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:bro:econwp:2021-001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0014292122001295
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hanno Lustig & Nikolai Roussanov & Adrien Verdelhan, 2011. "Common Risk Factors in Currency Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(11), pages 3731-3777.
    2. Oleg Itskhoki, 2021. "The Story of the Real Exchange Rate," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 423-455, August.
    3. Kokoszka, Piotr & Leipus, Remigijus, 1998. "Change-point in the mean of dependent observations," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 385-393, November.
    4. George Syrichas, 2010. "Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes in Mediterranean Countries and the Experience of Cyprus," Working Papers 2010-8, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    5. Adam G. G. Bennett, 1993. "The Operation of the Estonian Currency Board," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(2), pages 451-470, June.
    6. Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma & Jarko Fidrmuc & Maria Antoinette Silgoner, 2005. "On the Road: The Path of Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania to the EU and the Euro," Europe-Asia Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(6), pages 843-858.
    7. Enders, Zeno & Jung, Philip & Müller, Gernot J., 2013. "Has the Euro changed the business cycle?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 189-211.
    8. Lavielle, Marc, 1999. "Detection of multiple changes in a sequence of dependent variables," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 79-102, September.
    9. Xavier Gabaix & Matteo Maggiori, 2015. "International Liquidity and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(3), pages 1369-1420.
    10. Monacelli, Tommaso, 2004. "Into the Mussa puzzle: monetary policy regimes and the real exchange rate in a small open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 191-217, January.
    11. Alberto Cavallo & Brent Neiman & Roberto Rigobon, 2015. "The Price Impact of Joining a Currency Union: Evidence from Latvia," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 63(2), pages 281-297, September.
    12. Mussa, Michael, 1986. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence and implications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 117-214, January.
    13. Lustig, Hanno & Roussanov, Nikolai & Verdelhan, Adrien, 2014. "Countercyclical currency risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 527-553.
    14. Sebastian Edwards & Luis Cabezas, 2022. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Monetary Policy, and Real Exchange Rates: Iceland and the 2008 Crisis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 197-230, April.
    15. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
    16. Marc Lavielle & Eric Moulines, 2000. "Least‐squares Estimation of an Unknown Number of Shifts in a Time Series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 33-59, January.
    17. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2002. "Detecting multiple breaks in financial market volatility dynamics," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 579-600.
    18. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    19. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
    20. Nazim Belhocine & Ernesto Crivelli & Ms. Nan Geng & Tiberiu Scutaru & Mr. Johannes Wiegand & Zaijin Zhan, 2016. "Taking Stock of Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Europe," IMF Departmental Papers / Policy Papers 2016/012, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Alberto Cavallo & Brent Neiman & Roberto Rigobon, 2014. "Currency Unions, Product Introductions, and the Real Exchange Rate," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(2), pages 529-595.
    22. Mr. Adam Bennett, 1993. "The Operation of the Estonian Currency Board," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 1992/003, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Ms. Anne Marie Gulde, 1999. "The Role of the Currency Board in Bulgaria's Stabilization," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 1999/003, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Heinz Handler, 2016. "Two centuries of currency policy in Austria," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 61-76.
    25. Whitney Newey & Kenneth West, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    26. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2018. "Identification in Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 59-86, Summer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cosimo Petracchi & Luca Riva & Marco Stenborg Petterson, 2026. "Exchange-Rate Regimes and the Behaviour of Exporters," CSEF Working Papers 789, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    2. Victor Shevchuk & Roman Kopych, 2021. "Exchange Rate Volatility, Currency Misalignment, and Risk of Recession in the Central and Eastern European Countries," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-19, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Colacito, Riccardo & Riddiough, Steven J. & Sarno, Lucio, 2020. "Business cycles and currency returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(3), pages 659-678.
    2. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2002. "Detecting multiple breaks in financial market volatility dynamics," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 579-600.
    3. Corte, Pasquale Della & Kozhan, Roman & Neuberger, Anthony, 2021. "The cross-section of currency volatility premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(3), pages 950-970.
    4. Aleksejs Krecetovs & Pasquale Della Corte, 2016. "Macro uncertainty and currency premia," 2016 Meeting Papers 624, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Federico Belotti & Alessandro Casini & Leopoldo Catania & Stefano Grassi & Pierre Perron, 2023. "Simultaneous bandwidths determination for DK-HAC estimators and long-run variance estimation in nonparametric settings," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(3), pages 281-306, February.
    6. Gawon Yoon, 2011. "Changing volatility of long-term UK interest rates during Pax Britannica," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 69-74.
    7. Lee, Kyuseok, 2018. "Systematic exchange rate variation: Where does the dollar factor come from?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 288-307.
    8. Andreï Kostyrka & Dmitry Malakhov, 2021. "Was there ever a shift: Empirical analysis of structural-shift tests for return volatility," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 61, pages 110-139.
    9. Filippou, Ilias & Taylor, Mark P., 2023. "Forward-Looking Policy Rules and Currency Premia," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 58(1), pages 449-483, February.
    10. Arash, Aloosh, 2011. "Variance Risk Premium Differentials and Foreign Exchange Returns," MPRA Paper 40829, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Aug 2012.
    11. Granziera, Eleonora & Sihvonen, Markus, 2020. "Bonds, currencies and expectational errors," Working Paper 2020/3, Norges Bank.
    12. Aloosh, Arash, 2014. "Global Variance Risk Premium and Forex Return Predictability," MPRA Paper 59931, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Alaa Abi Morshed & Elena Andreou & Otilia Boldea, 2018. "Structural Break Tests Robust to Regression Misspecification," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-39, May.
    14. Huang, Huichou & MacDonald, Ronald & Zhao, Yang, 2012. "Global Currency Misalignments, Crash Sensitivity, and Downside Insurance Costs," MPRA Paper 53745, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Nov 2013.
    15. Granziera, Eleonora & Sihvonen, Markus, 2024. "Bonds, currencies and expectational errors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    16. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller, 2016. "Inflation Persistence and Structural Breaks: The Experience of Inflation Targeting Countries and the US," Working papers 2016-11, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    17. Getu Hailu & Alex Maynard & Alfons Weersink, 2015. "Empirical analysis of corn and soybean basis in Canada," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(51), pages 5491-5509, November.
    18. Philippe Mueller & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi & Andrea Vedolin, 2017. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy Uncertainty," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(3), pages 1213-1252, June.
    19. Cosimo Petracchi & Luca Riva & Marco Stenborg Petterson, 2026. "Exchange-Rate Regimes and the Behaviour of Exporters," CSEF Working Papers 789, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    20. Joseph, Byrne & Sakemoto, Ryuta, 2020. "The Conditional Risk and Return Trade-Off on Currency Portfolios," MPRA Paper 99497, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bro:econwp:2021-001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Brown Economics Webmaster (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.