IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/boj/bojwps/04-e-6.html

Demographic Changes in Japan and their Macroeconomic Effects

Author

Listed:
  • Takashi Kozu

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Yoshiko Sato

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Masakazu Inada

    (Bank of Japan)

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of demographic changes in Japan upon the social security system, labor market, household savings rate, and economic growth. The results are, firstly, to confirm, in the face of these demographic changes, (1) the increasing difficulty of maintaining the current social security system, (2) the decrease in the number of workers, and (3) the gradual decline of the household savings rate. Secondly, calculations based on a simple model show a reduction in the labor input and a slowdown in the accumulation of capital, indicating that the potential macroeconomic growth rate will also undergo a decline. Furthermore, in order to compensate for the decrease in the number of workers that accompanies such demographic changes, we include in the model some extreme conditions on rates of employment for the elderly and for women as well as on immigration and fertility rates. Even under such extreme conditions, it still proves difficult to completely neutralize the negative demographic effects on the potential growth rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Takashi Kozu & Yoshiko Sato & Masakazu Inada, 2003. "Demographic Changes in Japan and their Macroeconomic Effects," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 04-E-6, Bank of Japan.
    • Handle: RePEc:boj:bojwps:04-e-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.boj.or.jp/en/research/wps_rev/wps_2004/data/wp04e06.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. Hamid Faruqee, 2002. "Population Aging and its Macroeconomic Implications: A Framework for Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2002/016, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Kamada, Koichiro & Masuda, Kazuto, 2001. "Effects of Measurement Error on the Output Gap in Japan," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(2), pages 109-154, May.
    3. Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2004. "The 1990s in Japan: a lost decade," Chapters, in: Paolo Onofri (ed.), The Economics of an Ageing Population, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Jonathan Coppel & Jean-Christophe Dumont & Ignazio Visco, 2001. "Trends in Immigration and Economic Consequences," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 284, OECD Publishing.
    5. Britta Hoem, 2000. "Entry into motherhood in Sweden," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 2(4).
    6. Horioka, Charles Yuji, 1992. "Future trends in Japan's saving rate and the implications thereof for Japan's external imbalance," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 307-330, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ichiro Muto & Takemasa Oda & Nao Sudo, 2016. "Macroeconomic Impact of Population Aging in Japan: A Perspective from an Overlapping Generations Model," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(3), pages 408-442, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nadenichek, Jon, 2007. "Consumer confidence and economic stagnation in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 338-346, August.
    2. Fujiwara, Ippei & Hara, Naoko & Hirose, Yasuo & Teranishi, Yuki, 2005. "The Japanese Economic Model (JEM)," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 23(2), pages 61-142, May.
    3. Karin Mayr, 2003. "Immigration and Majority Voting on Income Redistriubtion-Is there a Case for Opposition from Natives?," Economics working papers 2003-08, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    4. Morita, Hiroshi, 2014. "External shocks and Japanese business cycles: Evidence from a sign-restricted VAR model," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 59-74.
    5. Gary Robinson, 2017. "Pragmatic financialisation: the role of the Japanese Post Office," New Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 61-75, January.
    6. Fang Cai, 2015. "Haste Makes Waste: Policy Options Facing China after Reaching the Lewis Turning Point," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 23(1), pages 1-20, January.
    7. Theobald, Hildegard, 2004. "Fallstudie III: Förderung der Transparenz von Bildungsabschlüssen in der Gesundheitsbranche," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 115-144.
    8. Kyoji Fukao & Victoria Kravtsova & Kentaro Nakajima, 2014. "How important is geographical agglomeration to factory efficiency in Japan’s manufacturing sector?," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 52(3), pages 659-696, May.
    9. Kuroda, Sachiko & Yamamoto, Isamu, 2008. "Estimating Frisch labor supply elasticity in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 566-585, December.
    10. Hirakata, Naohisa & Sudo, Nao & Takei, Ikuo & Ueda, Kozo, 2016. "Japan's financial crises and lost decades," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 31-46.
    11. Gunnar Andersson & Kirk Scott, 2007. "Childbearing dynamics of couples in a universalistic welfare state," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 17(30), pages 897-938.
    12. Ikeda, Daisuke & Morita, Yasuko, 2020. "The effects of barriers to technology adoption on japanese prewar and postwar economic growth," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    13. Vegard Skirbekk & Hans-Peter Kohler & Alexia Prskawetz, 2004. "Birth month, school graduation, and the timing of births and marriages," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 41(3), pages 547-568, August.
    14. Junko Doi & Takao Fujii & Shinya Horie & Jun Iritani & Sumie Sato & Masaya Yasuoka, 2021. "Construction of an Aggregated Economy - Aggregated TFP and Price Level -," Discussion Paper Series 228, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University.
    15. Malmaeus, J. Mikael & Alfredsson, Eva C., 2017. "Potential Consequences on the Economy of Low or No Growth - Short and Long Term Perspectives," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 57-64.
    16. repec:bla:ecorec:v:85:y:2009:i:s1:p:s59-s73 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Yamada, Tomoaki, 2011. "A politically feasible social security reform with a two-tier structure," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 199-224, September.
    18. Mitsuru Katagiri, 2012. "Economic Consequences of Population Aging in Japan: Effects through Changes in Demand Structure," IMES Discussion Paper Series 12-E-03, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    19. Andrés Fernández & Ayşe İmrohoroğlu & Cesar E. Tamayo, 2019. "Saving Rates in Latin America: A Neoclassical Perspective," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(4), pages 791-823, December.
    20. Edward C. Prescott, 2006. "The Transformation of Macroeconomic Policy and Research," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 50(1), pages 3-20, March.
    21. Schüler, Yves S. & Hiebert, Paul P. & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2020. "Financial cycles: Characterisation and real-time measurement," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boj:bojwps:04-e-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bank of Japan (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bojgvjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.