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Japanese growth and stagnation: a Keynesian perspective

Author

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  • Peter Skott

    () (University of Massachusetts Amherst)

  • Takeshi Nakatani

    () (Kobe University)

Abstract

This paper uses a modified Harrodian model to understand both the long period of rapid Japanese growth and the recent period of stagnation. The model has multiple steady-growth solutions when the labour supply is highly elastic, and government intervention, we argue, took the Japanese economy onto a high-growth trajectory. Labour constraints began to ap- pear around 1970, and a combination of high saving rates and slow popu- lation growth account for the stagnation of the 1990s. This combination produces a structural liquidity trap and threatens the sustainability of at- tempts to ensure near full employment through fiscal policy or by running a persistent trade surplus. JEL Categories: E12, E63, O53

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Skott & Takeshi Nakatani, 2006. "Japanese growth and stagnation: a Keynesian perspective," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2006-04, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ums:papers:2006-04
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anonymous, 1978. "Introduction [Commerce et Technologie]," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 4(1), pages 2-3, Winter.
    2. Amitava Krishna Dutt & Peter Skott, 1996. "Keynesian Theory and the Aggregate-Supply/Aggregate-Demand Framework: A Defense," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 22(3), pages 313-331, Summer.
    3. Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2004. "The 1990s in Japan: a lost decade," Chapters,in: The Economics of an Ageing Population, chapter 2 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Peter Flaschel & Peter Skott, 2006. "Steindlian Models Of Growth And Stagnation," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 303-338, July.
    5. Ekkehart Schlicht, 2006. "Public Debt As Private Wealth: Some Equilibrium Considerations," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(4), pages 494-520, November.
    6. Skott, Peter, 2005. "Fairness as a source of hysteresis in employment and relative wages," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 305-331, July.
    7. Taylor, Lance, 1985. "A Stagnationist Model of Economic Growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(4), pages 383-403, December.
    8. Paul R. Krugman, 1998. "It's Baaack: Japan's Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 137-206.
    9. Dutt, Amitava Krishna, 1984. "Stagnation, Income Distribution and Monopoly Power," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 25-40, March.
    10. Skott, Peter, 1997. "Stagflationary Consequences of Prudent Monetary Policy in a Unionized Economy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(4), pages 609-622, October.
    11. Peter Skott, "undated". "Demand Policy in the Long Run," Economics Working Papers 2000-17, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    12. Skott,Peter, 2008. "Conflict and Effective Demand in Economic Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521066310, April.
    13. Schlicht, Ekkehart, 2004. "Public Debt as Private Wealth," Discussion Papers in Economics 371, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    14. James M. Poterba, 1987. "Tax Policy and Corporate Saving," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 18(2), pages 455-516.
    15. Anonymous, 1978. "Introduction [Trade and Technology]," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 4(1), pages 1-2, Winter.
    16. Morana, Claudio, 2004. "The Japanese stagnation: an assessment of the productivity slowdown hypothesis," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 193-211, April.
    17. Cowling, Keith & Tomlinson, Philip R, 2000. "The Japanese Crisis--A Case of Strategic Failure?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(464), pages 358-381, June.
    18. Skott, Peter, 1981. "On the 'Kaldorian' Saving Function," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 563-581.
    19. Skott, Peter, 1989. "Effective Demand, Class Struggle and Cyclical Growth," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(1), pages 231-247, February.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Peter Skott, 2016. "Aggregate demand, functional finance, and secular stagnation," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 13(2), pages 172-188, September.
    2. de Souza, Joao Paulo A., 2014. "Growth Complementarity Between Agriculture and Industry: Evidence from a Panel of Developing Countries," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2014-11, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    3. Alfonso Palacio-Vera, 2006. "On Lower-bound Traps: A Framework for the Analysis of Monetary Policy in the ÒAgeÓ of Central Banks," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_478, Levy Economics Institute.
    4. Soon Ryoo & Peter Skott, 2013. "Public debt and full employment in a stock-flow consistent model of a corporate economy," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(4), pages 511-528.
    5. repec:ums:papers:2012-10 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Rod Tyers & Jenny Corbett, 2012. "Japan's economic slowdown and its global implications: a review of the economic modelling," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University, vol. 26(2), pages 1-28, November.
    7. Peter Skott & Martin Rapetti & Arslan Razmi, 2012. "Real exchange rates and the long-run effects of aggregate demand in economies with underemployment," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2012-06, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    8. Alfonso Palacio Vera, 2009. "Some Reflections on the Theory of the “Liquidity Trap”," Documentos de trabajo de la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales 09-02, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales.
    9. Skott, Peter & Ryoo, Soon, 2015. "Functional finance and intergenerational distribution in a Keynesian OLG model," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2015-13, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    10. repec:bla:metroe:v:68:y:2017:i:3:p:549-583 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Alfonso Palacio Vera, 2008. "The "New consensus"and the Post-Keynesian approach to the analysis of liquidity traps," Documentos de trabajo de la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales 08-03, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Japan; growth; stagnation; liquidity trap; public debt; multiple equilibria;

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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