IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jeborg/v210y2023icp61-82.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Endogenous business cycles and economic policy

Author

Listed:
  • Skott, Peter

Abstract

This paper examines the dynamics of Keynesian models that incorporate feedback effects from the labor market to income distribution, investment, aggregate demand and output. A baseline version of the model can generate endogenous growth cycles, but cumulative divergence and economic collapse also become possible for plausible parameter values. Extensions of the model that include monetary and fiscal policy show greater robustness: the local instability of the stationary point leads to limit cycles (rather than complete collapse), even when large, destabilizing changes are made to parameters describing the private sector. The robustness of the general approach is reinforced by the endogeneity of the fiscal and monetary policy rules.

Suggested Citation

  • Skott, Peter, 2023. "Endogenous business cycles and economic policy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 61-82.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:210:y:2023:i:c:p:61-82
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2023.04.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167268123001063
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jebo.2023.04.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    2. Chiarella,Carl & Flaschel,Peter, 2011. "The Dynamics of Keynesian Monetary Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521180184.
    3. Olivier Allain, 2015. "Tackling the instability of growth: a Kaleckian-Harrodian model with an autonomous expenditure component," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 39(5), pages 1351-1371.
    4. Gary Solon & Robert Barsky & Jonathan A. Parker, 1994. "Measuring the Cyclicality of Real Wages: How Important is Composition Bias?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(1), pages 1-25.
    5. Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1985. "On Endogenous Competitive Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(5), pages 995-1045, September.
    6. Paul Beaudry & Dana Galizia & Franck Portier, 2020. "Putting the Cycle Back into Business Cycle Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(1), pages 1-47, January.
    7. Paul Beaudry & Dana Galizia & Franck Portier, 2017. "Is the Macroeconomy Locally Unstable and Why Should We Care?," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 479-530.
    8. Katharine G. Abraham & John C. Haltiwanger, 1995. "Real Wages and the Business Cycle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(3), pages 1215-1264, September.
    9. Soon Ryoo & Peter Skott, 2017. "Fiscal and Monetary Policy Rules in an Unstable Economy," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(3), pages 500-548, July.
    10. Nakatani, Takeshi & Skott, Peter, 2007. "Japanese growth and stagnation: A Keynesian perspective," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 306-332, September.
    11. Peter Skott, 2012. "Theoretical And Empirical Shortcomings Of The Kaleckian Investment Function," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(1), pages 109-138, February.
    12. George A. Akerlof & William R. Dickens & George L. Perry, 1996. "The Macroeconomics of Low Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 1-76.
    13. Rudiger von Arnim & Jose Barrales, 2015. "Demand-driven Goodwin cycles with Kaldorian and Kaleckian features," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 351-373, July.
    14. Stephen Thompson, 2018. "Employment and fiscal policy in a Marxian model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(4), pages 820-846, November.
    15. Peter Skott, 2019. "Autonomous demand, Harrodian instability and the supply side," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(2), pages 233-246, May.
    16. Skott,Peter, 2008. "Conflict and Effective Demand in Economic Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521066310.
    17. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 141-206.
    18. Mamadou Bobo Diallo & Peter Flaschel & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Christian R. Proano, 2011. "Reconsidering the Dynamic Interaction between Real Wages and Macroeconomic Activity," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 2(1), pages 77-93, April.
    19. Olivier Blanchard, 2016. "The Phillips Curve: Back to the '60s?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 31-34, May.
    20. Fabio Freitas & Franklin Serrano, 2015. "Growth Rate and Level Effects, the Stability of the Adjustment of Capacity to Demand and the Sraffian Supermultiplier," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(3), pages 258-281, July.
    21. Nelson H. Barbosa‐Filho & Lance Taylor, 2006. "Distributive And Demand Cycles In The Us Economy—A Structuralist Goodwin Model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 389-411, July.
    22. Skott,Peter, 2023. "Structuralist and Behavioral Macroeconomics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781009367301.
    23. Olivier Allain, 2021. "A supermultiplier model of the natural rate of growth," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(3), pages 612-634, July.
    24. Ben Zipperer & Peter Skott, 2011. "Cyclical patterns of employment, utilization, and profitability," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 25-58.
    25. Skott, Peter, 1989. "Effective Demand, Class Struggle and Cyclical Growth," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(1), pages 231-247, February.
    26. Peter Flaschel & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2006. "Wage Price Phillips Curves and Macroeconomic Stability: Basic Structural Form, Estimation and Analysis," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Quantitative and Empirical Analysis of Nonlinear Dynamic Macromodels, pages 4-48, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    27. Peter Skott, 2015. "Growth cycles with or without price flexibility," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 374-386, July.
    28. J. W. Mason & Arjun Jayadev, 2018. "A comparison of monetary and fiscal policy interaction under ‘sound’ and ‘functional’ finance regimes," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(2), pages 488-508, May.
    29. Phelps, Edmund S, 1969. "The New Microeconomics in Inflation and Employment Theory," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 147-160, May.
    30. Steven M. Fazzari & Pietro E. Ferri & Edward G. Greenberg & Anna Maria Variato, 2013. "Aggregate demand, instability, and growth," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 1-21, January.
    31. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    32. Chiarella,Carl & Flaschel,Peter & Franke,Reiner, 2011. "Foundations for a Disequilibrium Theory of the Business Cycle," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521369923.
    33. Peter Skott & Ben Zipperer, 2012. "An empirical evaluation of three post-Keynesian models," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 9(2), pages 277-307.
    34. Reiner Franke, 2019. "On Harrodian instability: two stabilizing mechanisms may be jointly destabilizing," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 7(1), pages 43-56, January.
    35. Abe, Naohito & Tonogi, Akiyuki, 2010. "Micro and macro price dynamics in daily data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(6), pages 716-728, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peter Skott & Júlio Fernando Costa Santos & José Luís da Costa Oreiro, 2022. "Supermultipliers, ‘endogenous autonomous demand’ and functional finance," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(1), pages 220-244, February.
    2. Peter Skott, 2015. "Growth cycles with or without price flexibility," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 374-386, July.
    3. Peter Skott, 2019. "Autonomous demand, Harrodian instability and the supply side," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(2), pages 233-246, May.
    4. Araujo, Ricardo Azevedo & Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J. & Moreira, Helmar Nunes, 2019. "Some new insights on the empirics of Goodwin's growth-cycle model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 42-54.
    5. Peter Skott, 2018. "Challenges for post-Keynesian macroeconomics," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2018-03, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    6. Rudiger von Arnim & Jose Barrales, 2015. "Demand-driven Goodwin cycles with Kaldorian and Kaleckian features," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 351-373, July.
    7. Soon Ryoo & Peter Skott, 2017. "Fiscal and Monetary Policy Rules in an Unstable Economy," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(3), pages 500-548, July.
    8. Rada, Codrina & Tavani, Daniele & von Arnim, Rudiger & Zamparelli, Luca, 2023. "Classical and Keynesian models of inequality and stagnation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 442-461.
    9. Christian Schoder, 2017. "Estimating Keynesian models of business fluctuations using Bayesian Maximum Likelihood," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 5(4), pages 586–630-5, October.
    10. Santiago José Gahn & Alejandro González, 2022. "On the empirical content of the convergence debate: Cross‐country evidence on growth and capacity utilisation," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 825-855, July.
    11. Stephen Thompson, 2018. "Employment and fiscal policy in a Marxian model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(4), pages 820-846, November.
    12. Jose Barrales‐Ruiz & Ivan Mendieta‐Muñoz & Codrina Rada & Daniele Tavani & Rudiger von Arnim, 2022. "The distributive cycle: Evidence and current debates," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 468-503, April.
    13. Olivier Allain, 2021. "A supermultiplier model of the natural rate of growth," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(3), pages 612-634, July.
    14. Stephen Thompson, 2022. "“The total movement of this disorder is its order”: Investment and utilization dynamics in long‐run disequilibrium," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(2), pages 638-682, May.
    15. Schoder, Christian, 2014. "Instability, stationary utilization and effective demand: A structuralist model of endogenous cycles," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 10-29.
    16. Marcio Santetti, Michalis Nikiforos, Rudiger von Arnim, 2022. "Growth, cycles, and residential investment," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2022_04, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    17. Gahn, Santiago José, 2021. "On the adjustment of capacity utilisation to aggregate demand: Revisiting an old Sraffian critique to the Neo-Kaleckian model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 325-360.
    18. Barrales-Ruiz, Jose & Arnim, Rudiger von, 2021. "Endogenous fluctuations in demand and distribution: An empirical investigation," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 204-220.
    19. Eckhard Hein & Valeria Jimenez, 2022. "The macroeconomic implications of zero growth: a post-Keynesian approach," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 19(1), pages 41-60, April.
    20. Christian Schoder, 2012. "Instability, stationary utilization and effective demand: A synthesis of Harrodian and Kaleckian growth theory," IMK Working Paper 104-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:210:y:2023:i:c:p:61-82. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jebo .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.