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Monetary transmission through the housing sector

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Albuquerque

    (Bank of England)

  • Thomas Lazarowicz

    (University College, London)

  • Jamie Lenney

    (Bank of England)

Abstract

The simultaneous rise in housing rents and interest rates over 2022–24 brought scrutiny to the interaction between monetary policy and the housing market. We start by providing evidence on this interaction using data from the United Kingdom and a high frequency identification. Our main empirical finding is that house prices and rents do not move together after an increase in interest rates. House prices fall strongly but gradually, reaching their trough after one year, while nominal rents are stable for one to two years, before eventually falling. Next, we develop a quantitative Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model that includes housing and rental sectors. In particular, we model individual landlords as the marginal providers of rental housing. We use the model to examine the housing channel of monetary policy where we find: (1) the housing channel is large and falls disproportionality on mortgagors; (2) deviations from rational expectations mean landlords largely fail to pass on mortgage costs and act more like wealthy hand to mouth; (3) these behavioural biases dampen the potential trade-off between prices and output induced by the rental market; and (4) that it may be optimal for monetary policy makers to look through and accommodate housing supply shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Albuquerque & Thomas Lazarowicz & Jamie Lenney, 2025. "Monetary transmission through the housing sector," Bank of England working papers 1115, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:1115
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Adrien Auclert & Ludwig Straub & Matthew Rognlie, 2019. "Micro Jumps, Macro Humps: monetary policy and business cycles in an estimated HANK model," 2019 Meeting Papers 1449, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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    6. Mark Gertler & Peter Karadi, 2015. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Credit Costs, and Economic Activity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 44-76, January.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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