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On the origin of systemic risk

Author

Listed:
  • Mattia Montagna

    (European Central Bank)

  • Gabriele Torri

    (University of Bergamo)

  • Giovanni Covi

    (Bank of England)

Abstract

Systemic risk in the banking sector is usually associated with long periods of economic downturn and very large social costs. On one hand, shocks coming from correlated exposures towards the real economy may induce correlation in banks’ default probabilities thereby increasing the likelihood for systemic tail events like the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. On the other hand, financial contagion also plays an important role in generating large-scale market failures, amplifying the initial shocks coming from the real economy. To study the sources of these rare phenomena, we propose a new definition of systemic risk (ie the probability of a large number of banks going into distress simultaneously) and thus we develop a multilayer microstructural model to study empirically the determinants of systemic risk. The model is then calibrated on the most comprehensive granular dataset for the euro-area banking sector, capturing roughly 96% or €23.2 trillion of euro-area banks’ total assets over the period 2014–2018. The outputs of the model decompose and quantify the sources of systemic risk showing that correlated economic shocks, financial contagion mechanisms, and their interaction are the main sources of systemic events. The results obtained with the simulation engine resemble common market-based systemic risk indicators and empirically corroborate findings from existing literature. This framework gives regulators and central bankers a tool to study systemic risk and its developments, pointing out that systemic events and banks’ idiosyncratic defaults have different drivers, hence implying different policy responses.

Suggested Citation

  • Mattia Montagna & Gabriele Torri & Giovanni Covi, 2021. "On the origin of systemic risk," Bank of England working papers 906, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0906
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Berger, Allen N. & Curti, Filippo & Mihov, Atanas & Sedunov, John, 2022. "Operational Risk is More Systemic than You Think: Evidence from U.S. Bank Holding Companies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    2. Gianluca Farina & Rosella Giacometti & Gabriele Torri, 2025. "Modeling portfolio loss distribution under infectious defaults and immunization," Papers 2503.03306, arXiv.org.
    3. Carro, Adrian & Stupariu, Patricia, 2024. "Uncertainty, non-linear contagion and the credit quality channel: An application to the Spanish interbank market," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    4. Torri, Gabriele & Giacometti, Rosella & Tichý, Tomáš, 2021. "Network tail risk estimation in the European banking system," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    5. Dotta, Vitor, 2022. "Addressing systemic risk in Europe during Covid-19: The role of regulation and the policy mix," IPE Working Papers 181/2022, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    6. Sydow, Matthias & Schilte, Aurore & Covi, Giovanni & Deipenbrock, Marija & Del Vecchio, Leonardo & Fiedor, Pawel & Fukker, Gábor & Gehrend, Max & Gourdel, Régis & Grassi, Alberto & Hilberg, Björn & Ka, 2024. "Shock amplification in an interconnected financial system of banks and investment funds," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    7. Subhash Karmakar & Gautam Bandyopadhyay & Jayanta Nath Mukhopadhyay, 2024. "Systemic Risk in Indian Financial Institutions: A Probabilistic Approach," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 31(3), pages 579-656, September.
    8. Aldo Glielmo & Marco Favorito & Debmallya Chanda & Domenico Delli Gatti, 2023. "Reinforcement Learning for Combining Search Methods in the Calibration of Economic ABMs," Papers 2302.11835, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    9. Budnik, Katarzyna & Ponte Marques, Aurea & Giglio, Carla & Grassi, Alberto & Durrani, Agha & Figueres, Juan Manuel & Konietschke, Paul & Le Grand, Catherine & Metzler, Julian & Población García, Franc, 2024. "Advancements in stress-testing methodologies for financial stability applications," Occasional Paper Series 348, European Central Bank.
    10. Torri, Gabriele & Radi, Davide & Dvořáčková, Hana, 2022. "Catastrophic and systemic risk in the non-life insurance sector: A micro-structural contagion approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    11. William Schueller & Christian Diem & Melanie Hinterplattner & Johannes Stangl & Beate Conrady & Markus Gerschberger & Stefan Thurner, 2022. "Propagation of disruptions in supply networks of essential goods: A population-centered perspective of systemic risk," Papers 2201.13325, arXiv.org.
    12. Belloni, Marco & Kuik, Friderike & Mingarelli, Luca, 2022. "Euro Area banks' sensitivity to changes in carbon price," Working Paper Series 2654, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Systemic risk; financial contagion; microstructural models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D85 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Network Formation
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation

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