IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/boe/boeewp/0419.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A global model of international yield curves: no-arbitrage term structure approach

Author

Listed:
  • Iryna Kaminska

    (Bank of England)

  • Andrew Meldrum

    (University of Cambridge)

  • James Smith

    (Bank of England)

Abstract

This paper extends a popular no-arbitrage affine term structure model to model jointly bond markets and exchange rates across the United Kingdom, United States and euro area. Using a monthly data set of forward rates from 1992, we first demonstrate that two global factors account for a significant proportion in the variation of bond yields across countries. We also show that, in order to explain country-specific movements in yield curves, local factors are required. Although we implement a very general factor structure, we find that our global factors are related to global inflation and global economic activity, while local factors are closely linked to monetary policy rates. In this respect our results are similar to previous work. But an important advantage of our joint international model is that we are able to decompose interest rates into risk-free rates and risk premia. Additionally, we are able to study the implications for exchange rates. We show that while differences in risk-free rates matter, to a large extent changes in the exchange rate are determined by time-varying exchange rate risk premia.

Suggested Citation

  • Iryna Kaminska & Andrew Meldrum & James Smith, 2011. "A global model of international yield curves: no-arbitrage term structure approach," Bank of England working papers 419, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0419
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2011/a-global-model-of-international-yield-curves-no-arbitrage-term-structure-approach.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2008. "Global yield curve dynamics and interactions: A dynamic Nelson-Siegel approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 351-363, October.
    2. Peter Hördahl & Oreste Tristani, 2012. "Inflation Risk Premia In The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 634-657, May.
    3. Antonio Diez De Los Rios, 2009. "Can Affine Term Structure Models Help Us Predict Exchange Rates?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(4), pages 755-766, June.
    4. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    5. David K. Backus & Silverio Foresi & Chris Telmer, "undated". "Discrete time models of bond pricing," GSIA Working Papers 251, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
    6. Michael Joyce & Peter Lildholdt & Steffen Sorensen, 2009. "Extracting inflation expectations and inflation risk premia from the term structure: a joint model of the UK nominal and real yield curves," Bank of England working papers 360, Bank of England.
    7. Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min & Xing, Yuhang, 2007. "Uncovered interest rate parity and the term structure," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1038-1069, October.
    8. Joyce, Michael A.S. & Lildholdt, Peter & Sorensen, Steffen, 2010. "Extracting inflation expectations and inflation risk premia from the term structure: A joint model of the UK nominal and real yield curves," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 281-294, February.
    9. Michael Joyce & Iryna Kaminska & Peter Lildholdt, 2008. "Understanding the real rate conundrum: an application of no-arbitrage finance models to the UK real yield curve," Bank of England working papers 358, Bank of England.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mikhail Chernov & Drew Creal, 2023. "International Yield Curves and Currency Puzzles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(1), pages 209-245, February.
    2. Don H. Kim & Marcelo Ochoa, 2021. "International Yield Spillovers," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-001, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Carvalho, Daniel & Fidora, Michael, 2015. "Capital inflows and euro area long-term interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 186-204.
    4. Meldrum, Andrew & Raczko, Marek & Spencer, Peter, 2023. "The information in joint term structures of bond yields," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    5. Ioannis A. Venetis & Avgoustinos Ladas, 2023. "Co-movement and global factors in sovereign bond yields," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 17-45.
    6. repec:ecb:ecbwps:20141798 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Andrew Meldrum & Marek Raczko & Peter Spencer, 2016. "Overseas unspanned factors and domestic bond returns," Bank of England working papers 618, Bank of England.
    8. Ana Aguilar & María Diego-Fernández & Rocio Elizondo & Jessica Roldán-Peña, 2022. "Term premium dynamics and its determinants: the Mexican case," BIS Working Papers 993, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Aguilar-Argaez Ana María & Diego-Fernández Forseck María & Elizondo Rocío & Roldán-Peña Jessica, 2020. "Term Premium Dynamics and its Determinants: The Mexican Case," Working Papers 2020-18, Banco de México.
    10. Jonathan Hambur & Lynne Cockerell & Christopher Potter & Penelope Smith & Michelle Wright, 2015. "Modelling the Australian Dollar," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2015-12, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    11. Perekunah Bright Eregha & Festus O. Egwaikhide, 2018. "Globalization and monetary policy rule in West African Monetary Zone: A generalized method of moment approach," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 49, pages 57-66.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Iryna Kaminska & Andrew Meldrum & James Smith, 2013. "A Global Model Of International Yield Curves: No‐Arbitrage Term Structure Approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 352-374, October.
    2. Chernov, Mikhail & Mueller, Philippe, 2012. "The term structure of inflation expectations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 367-394.
    3. Berardi, Andrea & Plazzi, Alberto, 2022. "Dissecting the yield curve: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    4. Daniela Kubudi & José Valentim Vicente, 2016. "A Joint Model of Nominal and Real Yield Curves," Working Papers Series 452, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    5. Güler, Mustafa Haluk & Keleş, Gürsu & Polat, Tandoğan, 2017. "An empirical decomposition of the liquidity premium in breakeven inflation rates," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 185-192.
    6. Yu-chin Chen & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2009. "A Macro-Finance Approach to Exchange Rate Determination," Working Papers UWEC-2009-24-R, University of Washington, Department of Economics, revised May 2010.
    7. Vicente, José Valentim Machado & Guillen, Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho, 2013. "Do inflation-linked bonds contain information about future inflation?," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 67(2), June.
    8. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Osbat, Chiara, 2017. "Low inflation in the euro area: Causes and consequences," Occasional Paper Series 181, European Central Bank.
    9. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Inflation Expectations and Risk Premiums in an Arbitrage‐Free Model of Nominal and Real Bond Yields," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 143-178, September.
    10. Kanas, Angelos, 2014. "Bond futures, inflation-indexed bonds, and inflation risk premium," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 82-99.
    11. Tobias Adrian & Hao Wu, 2009. "The term structure of inflation expectations," Staff Reports 362, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    12. Hatcher, Michael, 2013. "The Inflation Risk Premium on Government Debt in an Overlapping Generations Model," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-81, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    13. Gregory Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2012. "An International Dynamic Term Structure Model with Economic Restrictions and Unspanned Risks," Staff Working Papers 12-5, Bank of Canada.
    14. Covarrubias, Enrique & Hernández-del-Valle, Gerardo, 2016. "Inflation expectations derived from a portfolio model," MPRA Paper 69489, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Garcí­a, Juan Angel & Werner, Thomas, 2010. "Inflation risks and inflation risk premia," Working Paper Series 1162, European Central Bank.
    16. Lothian, James R. & Wu, Liuren, 2011. "Uncovered interest-rate parity over the past two centuries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 448-473, April.
    17. Kei Imakubo & Jouchi Nakajima, 2015. "Estimating inflation risk premia from nominal and real yield curves using a shadow-rate model," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 15-E-1, Bank of Japan.
    18. Argyropoulos, Efthymios & Tzavalis, Elias, 2021. "The influence of real interest rates and risk premium effects on the ability of the nominal term structure to forecast inflation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 785-796.
    19. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:67:n:2:a:6 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Tosapol Apaitan, 2015. "Extracting Market Inflation Expectations: A Semi-structural Macro-finance Term Structure Model," PIER Discussion Papers 4., Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Sep 2015.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Term structure models; exchange rates.;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0419. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Digital Media Team (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/boegvuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.