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Output gaps and policy stabilisation in Latin America: the effect of commodity and capital flow cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Enrique Alberola-Ila
  • Rocío Gondo
  • Marco Jacopo Lombardi
  • Diego Urbina

Abstract

We provide a measure of the output gap that filters out the impact of the commodity and net capital inflows booms for Latin American countries. These two factors temporarily boost output and so are likely to push up estimates of potential growth in the region to unrealistic levels, thereby resulting in an underestimation of the output gaps during the upswing of the commodity cycle. We also shed light on the interaction between the two components. The results show that commodity prices has been the dominant factor explaining deviation of activity from sustainable levels. The timely consideration of these factors could prevent a procyclical fiscal policy bias in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Enrique Alberola-Ila & Rocío Gondo & Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Diego Urbina, 2016. "Output gaps and policy stabilisation in Latin America: the effect of commodity and capital flow cycles," BIS Working Papers 568, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:568
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    Cited by:

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    2. Grintzalis, Ioannis & Lodge, David & Manu, Ana-Simona, 2017. "The implications of global and domestic credit cycles for emerging market economies: measures of finance-adjusted output gaps," Working Paper Series 2034, European Central Bank.
    3. Byron Botha & Eric Schaling, 2020. "Commodity Prices and Policy Stabilisation in South Africa," Working Papers 10225, South African Reserve Bank.
    4. Irifaar SOMÉ & Windkouni Haoua Eugenie MAIGA, 2021. "Effets des prix relatifs des échanges sur la croissance économique en Afrique subsaharienne," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 54, pages 161-175.
    5. Deba Prasad Rath & Pratik Mitra & Joice John, 2017. "A Measure of Finance-Neutral Output Gap for India," Working Papers id:11986, eSocialSciences.
    6. Mr. Yan Carriere-Swallow & Mr. Luis Ignacio Jácome & Mr. Nicolas E Magud & Alejandro M. Werner, 2016. "Central Banking in Latin America: The Way Forward," IMF Working Papers 2016/197, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Kátay Gábor & Kerdelhué Lisa & Lequien Matthieu, 2020. "Semi-Structural VAR and Unobserved Components Models to Estimate Finance-Neutral Output Gap," Working papers 791, Banque de France.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    output gap; commodity prices; capital flows; procyclicality; fiscal policy; Latin America;
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