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When is macroprudential policy effective?

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  • Chris McDonald

Abstract

Previous studies have shown that limits on loan-to-value (LTV) and debt-to-income (DTI) ratios can stabilise the housing market, and that tightening these limits tends to be more effective than loosening them. This paper examines whether the relative effectiveness of tightening vs. loosening macroprudential measures depends on where in the housing cycle they are implemented. I find that tightening measures have greater effects when credit is expanding quickly and when house prices are high relative to income. Loosening measures seem to have smaller effects than tightening, but the difference is negligible in downturns. Loosening being found to have small effects is consistent with where it occurs in the cycle.

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  • Chris McDonald, 2015. "When is macroprudential policy effective?," BIS Working Papers 496, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:496
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    1. Kuttner, Kenneth N. & Shim, Ilhyock, 2016. "Can non-interest rate policies stabilize housing markets? Evidence from a panel of 57 economies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 31-44.
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    Cited by:

    1. Altunbas, Yener & Binici, Mahir & Gambacorta, Leonardo, 2018. "Macroprudential policy and bank risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 203-220.
    2. Popoyan, Lilit & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2017. "Taming macroeconomic instability: Monetary and macro-prudential policy interactions in an agent-based model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 117-140.
    3. Francesco Lamperti & Antoine Mandel & Mauro Napoletano & Alessandro Sapio & Andrea Roventini & Tomas Balint & Igor Khorenzhenko, 2017. "Taming macroeconomic instability," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03399574, HAL.
    4. Carpantier, Jean-Francois & Olivera, Javier & Van Kerm, Philippe, 2018. "Macroprudential policy and household wealth inequality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 262-277.
    5. Péter Fáykiss, Márton Nagy and Anikó Szombati, 2017. "Regionally-differentiated debt cap rules: a Hungarian perspective," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Macroprudential policy frameworks, implementation and relationships with other policies, volume 94, pages 153-178, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Garcia Revelo, José David & Lucotte, Yannick & Pradines-Jobet, Florian, 2020. "Macroprudential and monetary policies: The need to dance the Tango in harmony," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    7. Buch, Claudia M. & Vogel, Edgar & Weigert, Benjamin, 2018. "Evaluating macroprudential policies," ESRB Working Paper Series 76, European Systemic Risk Board.
    8. Mr. Fabian Valencia & Ms. Juliana Dutra Araujo & Ms. Adina Popescu & Manasa Patnam & Weijia Yao, 2020. "Effects of Macroprudential Policy: Evidence from Over 6,000 Estimates," IMF Working Papers 2020/067, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Michaela Posch & Stefan W. Schmitz & Katharina Steiner & Eva Ubl, 2019. "The case for macroprudential policy as a stabilizing tool for the euro area," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q1-Q2/19, pages 124-138.
    10. Lombardi, Domenico & Siklos, Pierre L., 2016. "Benchmarking macroprudential policies: An initial assessment," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 35-49.
    11. Janko Cizel & Jon Frost & Aerdt Houben & Peter Wierts, 2019. "Effective Macroprudential Policy: Cross‐Sector Substitution from Price and Quantity Measures," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(5), pages 1209-1235, August.
    12. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5hussro0tc951q0jqpu8quliqu is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Péter Fáykiss & Alexandr Palicz & János Szakács & Márton Zsigó, 2018. "Experiences of Debt Cap Regulations in Hungarian Retail Lending," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 17(1), pages 34-61.
    14. Veronica B Bayangos & Jeremy De Jesus, 2020. "Have domestic prudential policies been effective? Insights from bank-level property loan data," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Measuring the effectiveness of macroprudential policies using supervisory bank-level data, volume 110, pages 63-79, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5bnglqth5987gaq6dhju3psjn3 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Jasper de Jong & Emmanuel De Veirman, 2019. "Heterogeneity and Asymmetric Macroeconomic Effects of Changes in Loan-to-Value Limits," Working Papers 635, DNB.
    17. Zulkhibri, Muhamed & Naiya, Ismaeel, 2016. "Assessment of Macroprudential Policy in a Dual Banking Sector," Working Papers 2016-2, The Islamic Research and Teaching Institute (IRTI).
    18. Gergely Lakos & Tibor Szendrei, 2017. "Explanations of Asset Price Bubbles," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 16(4), pages 122-150.
    19. Soyoung Kim & Aaron Mehrotra, 2015. "Managing price and financial stability objectives - what can we learn from the Asia-Pacific region?," BIS Working Papers 533, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Kaushik Jayaram & Blaise Gadanecz, 2016. "Macroprudential policy frameworks, instruments and indicators: a review," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Combining micro and macro data for financial stability analysis, volume 41, Bank for International Settlements.
    21. Jose David GARCIA REVELO & Yannick LUCOTTE & Florian PRADINES-JOBET, 2019. "Macroprudential and Monetary Policies : The Need to Dance the Tango in Harmony," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2691, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    22. Jon Frost & Jakob de Haan & Neeltje van Horen, 2017. "International Banking and Cross-Border Effects of Regulation: Lessons from the Netherlands," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(2), pages 293-313, March.
    23. Mr. Luis Ignacio Jácome & Ms. Srobona Mitra, 2015. "LTV and DTI Limits—Going Granular," IMF Working Papers 2015/154, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Barasinska, Nataliya & Ludwig, Johannes & Vogel, Edgar, 2021. "The impact of borrower-based instruments on household vulnerability in Germany," Discussion Papers 20/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    25. Jung, Hosung & Lee, Jieun, 2017. "The effects of macroprudential policies on house prices: Evidence from an event study using Korean real transaction data," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 167-185.

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    Keywords

    loan-to-value limit; debt-to-income limit; housing credit; house-price-to-income ratio;
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