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What drives exchange rate pass throughs? Evidence from a non parametric method

Author

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  • Emanuel Kohlscheen
  • Aaron Mehrotra

Abstract

We provide new evidence on the drivers of the pass-through of exchange rate movements into consumer prices across four decades and close to a hundred countries, combining econometrics and random forests. Random forests are particularly useful for modelling highly non-linear relationships, as well as for identifying the relative importance of the different theoretical factors that can affect the degree of pass-through. We find that the size of the economy, which tends to be related to the extent of pricing-to-market, and the level of inflation emerge as the factors most strongly associated with exchange rate pass-through, followed by product homogeneity and the volatility of the exchange rate. As we show, several of these covariates display a non-linear relation with exchange rate pass-throughs. We also document important implications of macroeconomic policy regimes and outcomes, including those related to fiscal policy, for exchange rate pass-through.

Suggested Citation

  • Emanuel Kohlscheen & Aaron Mehrotra, 2026. "What drives exchange rate pass throughs? Evidence from a non parametric method," BIS Working Papers 1371, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:1371
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    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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