IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bis/biswps/1354.html

Monetary policy according to households: perceptions, reactions and channels

Author

Listed:
  • Francesco Grigoli
  • Damiano Sandri
  • Yuriy Gorodnichenko
  • Olivier Goibion

Abstract

This paper studies how households perceive the transmission of monetary policy and how these perceptions affect their decisions. Using a large-scale survey of over 25,000 U.S. households combined with randomized information treatments, we measure how households expect changes in the federal funds rate to affect economic conditions and their own behavior. Households report that higher interest rates lead them to reduce their spending, particularly on durable goods. However, the mechanisms underlying this response differ markedly from those in standard macroeconomic models. Respondents expect monetary tightening to raise borrowing costs and inflation. In turn, consumption function estimates identified using information treatments reveal that households respond to higher expected inflation by reducing consumption. Household inflation expectations also emerge as a central driver of portfolio reallocations following monetary policy changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Grigoli & Damiano Sandri & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Goibion, 2026. "Monetary policy according to households: perceptions, reactions and channels," BIS Working Papers 1354, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:1354
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bis.org/publ/work1354.pdf
    File Function: Full PDF document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.bis.org/publ/work1354.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:1354. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Martin Fessler (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bisssch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.