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Monetary Policy in the Media Spotlight: Sentiments, Signals, and Economic Impact

Author

Listed:
  • Firmin Ayivodji
  • Etienne Briand
  • Kevin Moran
  • Dalibor Stevanovic

Abstract

News media coverage of monetary policy is not a passive transcript of central-bank communication: it filters announcements, macroeconomic news, and editorial choices into narratives that move expectations and policy decisions. We embed media sentiment into a behavioral New-Keynesian model in which the central bank reacts to sentiment and sentiment follows an explicit law of motion. We construct monetary-policy sentiment indicators from more than 50,000 Canadian newspaper articles using dictionary methods, transformer models, and a generative-AI framework. Media sentiment shifts household inflation and wage expectations, improves out-of-sample forecasts of GDP growth and inflation, and loads positively on the Bank of Canada's estimated Taylor rule once treated as endogenous. A Bayesian SVAR identifies anticipated and unanticipated monetary-policy shocks together with a narrative shock; the narrative shock contributes a non-trivial share of medium-horizon macroeconomic variance, and a counterfactual that shuts down the dynamic feedback from media sentiment attenuates the propagation of monetary policy to output and prices. %The results suggest that media narratives are an integral part of monetary-policy transmission, not merely an additional source of information.

Suggested Citation

  • Firmin Ayivodji & Etienne Briand & Kevin Moran & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2026. "Monetary Policy in the Media Spotlight: Sentiments, Signals, and Economic Impact," Papers 2605.15092, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2605.15092
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