Aggregating infinitely many probability measures
The problem of how to rationally aggregate probability measures occurs in particular (i) when a group of agents, each holding probabilistic beliefs, needs to rationalise a collective decision on the basis of a single â€˜aggregate belief systemâ€™ and (ii) when an individual whose belief system is compatible with several (possibly infinitely many) probability measures wishes to evaluate her options on the basis of a single aggregate prior via classical expected utility theory (a psychologically plausible account of individual decisions). We investigate this problem by first recalling some negative results from preference and judgment aggregation theory which show that the aggregate of several probability measures should not be conceived as the probability measure induced by the aggregate of the corresponding expected-utility preferences. We describe how McConwayâ€™s (Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 76, no. 374, pp. 410â€“ 414, 1981) theory of probabilistic opinion pooling can be generalised to cover the case of the aggregation of infinite profiles of finitely-additive probability measures, too; we prove the existence of aggregation functionals satisfying responsiveness axioms Ã la McConway plus additional desiderata even for infinite electorates. On the basis of the theory of propositional-attitude aggregation, we argue that this is the most natural aggregation theory for probability measures. Our aggregation functionals for the case of infinite electorates are neither oligarchic nor integral-based and satisfy (at least) a weak anonymity condition. The delicate set-theoretic status of integral-based aggregation functionals for infinite electorates is discussed.
|Date of creation:||08 May 2014|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.imw.uni-bielefeld.de/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Herzberg, Frederik & Eckert, Daniel, 2012. "The model-theoretic approach to aggregation: Impossibility results for finite and infinite electorates," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 41-47.
- Frederik Herzberg, 2013. "Aggregation of Monotonic Bernoullian Archimedean preferences: Arrovian impossibility results," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 488, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
- Mark Fey, 2004. "May’s Theorem with an infinite population," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 275-293, October.
- Frank Riedel, 2009. "Optimal Stopping With Multiple Priors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 857-908, 05.
- Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & Aldo Rustichini, 2004.
"Ambiguity Aversion, Robustness, and the Variational Representation of Preferences,"
Carlo Alberto Notebooks
12, Collegio Carlo Alberto, revised 2006.
- Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & Aldo Rustichini, 2006. "Ambiguity Aversion, Robustness, and the Variational Representation of Preferences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1447-1498, November.
- Christian Klamler & Daniel Eckert, 2009. "A simple ultrafilter proof for an impossibility theorem in judgment aggregation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(1), pages 319-327.
- Hylland, Aanund & Zeckhauser, Richard J, 1979. "The Impossibility of Bayesian Group Decision Making with Separate Aggregation of Beliefs and Values," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(6), pages 1321-36, November.
- Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
- Frederik Herzberg & Daniel Eckert, 2010. "Impossibility results for infinite-electorate abstract aggregation rules," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 427, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
- Campbell, Donald E., 1990. "Intergenerational social choice without the Pareto principle," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 414-423, April.
- Simone Cerreia-Vioglio & Paolo Ghirardato & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & Marciano Siniscalchi, 2010.
"Rational Preferences under Ambiguity,"
Carlo Alberto Notebooks
169, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
- Lauwers, Luc & Van Liedekerke, Luc, 1995. "Ultraproducts and aggregation," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 217-237.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bie:wpaper:499. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bettina Weingarten)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.