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Why are capital flows so much volatile in emerging than in developed countries?

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  • Fernando Broner
  • Roberto Rigobon

Abstract

The standard deviations of capital flows to emerging countries are 80 percent higher than those to developed countries. First, we show that very little of this difference can be explained by more volatile fundamentals or by higher sensitivity to fundamentals. Second, we show that most of the difference in volatility can be accounted for by three characteristics of capital flows: (i) capital flows to emerging countries are more subject to occasional large negative shocks ("crises") than those to developed countries, (ii) shocks are subject to contagion, and (iii) - the most important one - shocks to capital flows to emerging countries are more persistent than those to developed countries. Finally, we study a number of country characteristics to determine which are most associated with capital flow volatility. Our results suggest that underdevelopment of domestic financial markets, weak institutions, and low income per capita, are all associated with capital flow volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando Broner & Roberto Rigobon, 2004. "Why are capital flows so much volatile in emerging than in developed countries?," Working Papers 196, Barcelona School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bge:wpaper:196
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2003. "Excessive Dollar Debt: Financial Development and Underinsurance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 867-893, April.
    2. repec:bge:wpaper:185 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:bla:jfinan:v:58:y:2003:i:2:p:867-894 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Fernando Broner & Guido Lorenzoni & Sergio L. Schmukler, "undated". "Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow Short Term?," Working Papers 308, Barcelona School of Economics.
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    1. Terence Tai Leung Chong & M. S. Rafiq & Tingting Juni Zhu & Zhang Wu, 2019. "Are Prices Sticky In Large Developing Economies? An Empirical Comparison Of China And India," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(02), pages 341-363, March.
    2. Partha Sen, 2007. "Capital inflows, financial repression, and macroeconomic policy in India since the reforms," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 23(2), pages 292-310, Summer.
    3. Diego Bastourre & Jorge Carrera & Javier Ibarlucia, 2008. "Commodity Prices in Argentina. What Does Move the Wind?," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 1-30, January-J.
    4. Rebecca Neumann & Ron Penl, 2008. "Volatile capital flows: Interactions between de jure and de facto financial liberalization," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(3), pages 1-10.
    5. Carmen Broto & Javier Díaz-Cassou & Aitor Erce-Domínguez, 2008. "The Sources of Capital Flows Volatility: Empirical Evidence for Emerging Countries," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 93-128, January-J.
    6. Nadia Doytch, 2022. "FDI: Hot or Cold Money? The Behaviour of Sectoral FDI Inflows and Outflows Over Periods of Growth Accelerations and Decelerations," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 57(3), pages 324-350, August.
    7. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2009. "Modeling the Impact of Real and Financial Shocks on Mercosur: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 359-384, July.
    8. Trung, Nguyen Ba, 2019. "The spillover effects of US economic policy uncertainty on the global economy: A global VAR approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 90-110.
    9. Xiomara Archibald & Denny Lewis-Bynoe & Winston Moore, 2008. "Labour Market Flexibility in Small Island Developing States," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 73-91, January-J.
    10. Hussain, Shahzad & Akbar, Muhammad & Malik, Qaisar & Ahmad, Tanveer & Abbas, Nasir, 2021. "Downside Systematic Risk in Pakistani Stock Market: Role of Corporate Governance, Financial Liberalization and Investor Sentiment," CAFE Working Papers 14, Centre for Accountancy, Finance and Economics (CAFE), Birmingham City Business School, Birmingham City University.
    11. Yang Yang & Haizhen Yang & Mengting Zhang, 2021. "A Cross-Country Analysis on Capital Flows Cycle: Stylized Facts and Regional Synchronization," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 11(5), pages 347-364, May.
    12. Juan Carlos Castañeda Fuentes & Juan Carlos Catalán Herrera, 2008. "Emigrant Remittances and the Real Exchange rate in Guatemala: an Adjustment-Costs Story," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 31-71, January-J.
    13. Neumann, Rebecca M. & Penl, Ron & Tanku, Altin, 2009. "Volatility of capital flows and financial liberalization: Do specific flows respond differently?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 488-501, June.
    14. Kazeem Abimbola Sanusi & Forget Mingiri Kapingura, 2022. "Drivers of capital inflow: Does global uncertainty matter?," Cogent Business & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 2124596-212, December.
    15. Kuziva Mamvura & Mabutho Sibanda & Rajendra Rajaram, 2020. "Causal Dynamics among Foreign Portfolio Investment Volatility, Financial Deepening and Capital Markets in Low Income Countries," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 70(1-2), pages 20-38, January-J.
    16. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2008:i:3:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Gozgor, Giray & Erzurumlu, Yaman O., 2010. "Causality relations between foreign direct investment and portfolio investment volatility," MPRA Paper 34352, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Mr. Paolo Mauro & Mr. Andrei A Levchenko, 2006. "Do Some Forms of Financial Flows Help Protect From Sudden Stops?," IMF Working Papers 2006/202, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Opperman, Pieter & Adjasi, Charles Komla Delali, 2017. "The determinants of private capital flow volatility in Sub-Saharan African countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 312-320.
    20. Ahmet Ihsan Kaya & Lutfi Erden, 2023. "Capital‐flow volatility in emerging markets: A panel GARCH approach," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 172-188, August.

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