IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bfi/wpaper/2020-169.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Distributional Effects of Student Loan Forgiveness

Author

Listed:
  • Sylvain Catherine

    (University of Pennsylvania - Wharton School of Business)

  • Constantine Yannelis

    (University of Chicago - Booth School of Business)

Abstract

We study the distributional consequences of student debt forgiveness in present value terms, accounting for differences in repayment behavior across the earnings distribution. Full or partial forgiveness is regressive because high earners took larger loans, but also because, for low earners, balances greatly overstate present values. Consequently, forgiveness would benefit the top decile as much as the bottom three deciles combined. Blacks and Hispanics would also benefit substantially less than balances suggest. Enrolling households who would benefit from income-driven repayment is the least expensive and most progressive policy we consider.

Suggested Citation

  • Sylvain Catherine & Constantine Yannelis, 2020. "The Distributional Effects of Student Loan Forgiveness," Working Papers 2020-169, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:bfi:wpaper:2020-169
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repec.bfi.uchicago.edu/RePEc/pdfs/BFI_WP_2020169.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Charlie Eaton & Sabrina T Howell & Constantine Yannelis & Francesca Cornelli, 2020. "When Investor Incentives and Consumer Interests Diverge: Private Equity in Higher Education," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(9), pages 4024-4060.
    2. Lance J. Lochner & Alexander Monge-Naranjo, 2011. "The Nature of Credit Constraints and Human Capital," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2487-2529, October.
    3. Armona, Luis & Chakrabarti, Rajashri & Lovenheim, Michael F., 2022. "Student debt and default: The role of for-profit colleges," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 67-92.
    4. Looney, Adam & Yannelis, Constantine, 2022. "The consequences of student loan credit expansions: Evidence from three decades of default cycles," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 771-793.
    5. Scott R. Baker & Robert A Farrokhnia & Steffen Meyer & Michaela Pagel & Constantine Yannelis, 2023. "Income, Liquidity, and the Consumption Response to the 2020 Economic Stimulus Payments," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(6), pages 2271-2304.
    6. Deborah Lucas, 2010. "Measuring and Managing Federal Financial Risk," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number luca07-1, March.
    7. Jae Song & David J Price & Fatih Guvenen & Nicholas Bloom & Till von Wachter, 2019. "Firming Up Inequality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(1), pages 1-50.
    8. Scott R. Baker, 2018. "Debt and the Response to Household Income Shocks: Validation and Application of Linked Financial Account Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(4), pages 1504-1557.
    9. Britton, Jack & Gruber, Jonathan, 2020. "Do income contingent student loans reduce labor supply?," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    10. Chapman, Bruce, 1997. "Conceptual Issues and the Australian Experience with Income Contingent Charges for Higher Education," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(442), pages 738-751, May.
    11. Elizabeth M. Caucutt & Lance Lochner, 2020. "Early and Late Human Capital Investments, Borrowing Constraints, and the Family," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(3), pages 1065-1147.
    12. Adrien Auclert & Will S. Dobbie & Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, 2019. "Macroeconomic Effects of Debt Relief: Consumer Bankruptcy Protections in the Great Recession," NBER Working Papers 25685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Barrios, John M. & Hochberg, Yael V. & Yi, Hanyi, 2022. "Launching with a parachute: The gig economy and new business formation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 22-43.
    14. Lucas, Deborah (ed.), 2010. "Measuring and Managing Federal Financial Risk," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226496580, December.
    15. Rothstein, Jesse & Rouse, Cecilia Elena, 2011. "Constrained after college: Student loans and early-career occupational choices," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 149-163.
    16. David O Lucca & Taylor Nadauld & Karen Shen, 2019. "Credit Supply and the Rise in College Tuition: Evidence from the Expansion in Federal Student Aid Programs," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(2), pages 423-466.
    17. Sandra E. Black & Jeffrey T. Denning & Lisa J. Dettling & Sarena Goodman & Lesley J. Turner, 2023. "Taking It to the Limit: Effects of Increased Student Loan Availability on Attainment, Earnings, and Financial Well-Being," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(12), pages 3357-3400, December.
    18. Alex Solis, 2017. "Credit Access and College Enrollment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(2), pages 562-622.
    19. Holger M. Mueller & Paige P. Ouimet & Elena Simintzi, 2017. "Within-Firm Pay Inequality," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(10), pages 3605-3635.
    20. Carroll, Christopher D. & Samwick, Andrew A., 1997. "The nature of precautionary wealth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 41-71, September.
    21. Caroline M. Hoxby & Sarah Turner, 2015. "What High-Achieving Low-Income Students Know about College," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 514-517, May.
    22. Constantine Yannelis & Greg Tracey, 2022. "Student Loans and Borrower Outcomes," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 167-186, November.
    23. Marco Di Maggio & Ankit Kalda & Vincent Yao, 2019. "Second Chance: Life without Student Debt," NBER Working Papers 25810, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Andreas Fagereng & Luigi Guiso & Davide Malacrino & Luigi Pistaferri, 2016. "Heterogeneity in Returns to Wealth and the Measurement of Wealth Inequality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 651-655, May.
    25. Jack W. Britton & Jonathan Gruber, 2019. "Do Income Contingent Student Loan Programs Distort Earnings? Evidence from the UK," NBER Working Papers 25822, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Stephen Teng Sun & Constantine Yannelis, 2016. "Credit Constraints and Demand for Higher Education: Evidence from Financial Deregulation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(1), pages 12-24, March.
    27. Gene Amromin & Janice Eberly, 2016. "Education Financing and Student Lending," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 289-315, October.
    28. Mueller, Holger M. & Yannelis, Constantine, 2019. "The rise in student loan defaults," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1), pages 1-19.
    29. Adam Looney & Constantine Yannelis, 2015. "A Crisis in Student Loans? How Changes in the Characteristics of Borrowers and in the Institutions They Attended Contributed to Rising Loan Defaults," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(2 (Fall)), pages 1-89.
    30. Goodman, Sarena & Isen, Adam & Yannelis, Constantine, 2021. "A day late and a dollar short: Liquidity and household formation among student borrowers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1301-1323.
    31. Alvaro Mezza & Daniel Ringo & Kamila Sommer & Shane Sherlund, 2016. "On the Effect of Student Loans on Access to Homeownership," ERES eres2016_159, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    32. John M. Barrios & Yael V. Hochberg & Hanyi Yi, 2020. "Launching with a Parachute: The Gig Economy and Entrepreneurial Entry," Working Papers 2020-21, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    33. Holger Mueller & Constantine Yannelis, 2022. "Increasing Enrollment in Income‐Driven Student Loan Repayment Plans: Evidence from the Navient Field Experiment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(1), pages 367-402, February.
    34. Brian C. Cadena & Benjamin J. Keys, 2013. "Can Self-Control Explain Avoiding Free Money? Evidence from Interest-Free Student Loans," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(4), pages 1117-1129, October.
    35. Holger M. Mueller & Paige P. Ouimet & Elena Simintzi, 2017. "Wage Inequality and Firm Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 379-383, May.
    36. Benjamin M. Marx & Lesley J. Turner, 2018. "Borrowing Trouble? Human Capital Investment with Opt-In Costs and Implications for the Effectiveness of Grant Aid," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 163-201, April.
    37. Nerlove, Marc L, 1975. "Some Problems in the Use of Income-contingent Loans for the Finance of Higher Education," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(1), pages 157-183, February.
    38. Asaf Bernstein & Peter Koudijs, 2021. "The Mortgage Piggy Bank: Building Wealth through Amortization," NBER Working Papers 28574, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    39. Jason Roderick Donaldson & Giorgia Piacentino & Anjan Thakor, 2019. "Household Debt Overhang and Unemployment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(3), pages 1473-1502, June.
    40. Christopher Avery & Sarah Turner, 2012. "Student Loans: Do College Students Borrow Too Much--Or Not Enough?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(1), pages 165-192, Winter.
    41. Neil Bhutta & Jesse Bricker & Andrew C. Chang & Lisa J. Dettling & Sarena Goodman & Alice Henriques Volz & Joanne W. Hsu & Kevin B. Moore & Sarah Reber & Richard Windle, 2020. "Changes in U.S. Family Finances from 2016 to 2019: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), vol. 106(5), pages 1-42, September.
    42. Sumit Agarwal & Vyacheslav Mikhed & Barry Scholnick, 2020. "Peers’ Income and Financial Distress: Evidence from Lottery Winners and Neighboring Bankruptcies," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(1), pages 433-472.
    43. Eric P. Bettinger & Bridget Terry Long & Philip Oreopoulos & Lisa Sanbonmatsu, 2012. "The Role of Application Assistance and Information in College Decisions: Results from the H&R Block Fafsa Experiment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(3), pages 1205-1242.
    44. Nadia Karamcheva & Jeffrey Perry & Constantine Yannelis, 2020. "Income-Driven Repayment Plans for Student Loans: Working Paper 2020-02," Working Papers 56337, Congressional Budget Office.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mallick Hossain & Igor Livshits & Collin Wardius, 2023. "Not Cashing In on Cashing Out: An Analysis of Low Cash-Out Refinance Rates," Working Papers 23-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    2. Lourie, Ben & Nekrasov, Alexander & Yoo, Il Sun, 2023. "The impact of debt forbearance on borrowers’ financial behavior and labor outcomes: Evidence from student loans," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Goodman, Sarena & Isen, Adam & Yannelis, Constantine, 2021. "A day late and a dollar short: Liquidity and household formation among student borrowers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1301-1323.
    2. Looney, Adam & Yannelis, Constantine, 2022. "The consequences of student loan credit expansions: Evidence from three decades of default cycles," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 771-793.
    3. Holger Mueller & Constantine Yannelis, 2022. "Increasing Enrollment in Income‐Driven Student Loan Repayment Plans: Evidence from the Navient Field Experiment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(1), pages 367-402, February.
    4. Michael Boutros & Nuno Clara & Francisco Gomes, 2023. "Borrow Now, Pay Even Later: A Quantitative Analysis of Student Debt Payment Plans," Staff Working Papers 23-54, Bank of Canada.
    5. Sandra E. Black & Jeffrey T. Denning & Lisa J. Dettling & Sarena Goodman & Lesley J. Turner, 2023. "Taking It to the Limit: Effects of Increased Student Loan Availability on Attainment, Earnings, and Financial Well-Being," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(12), pages 3357-3400, December.
    6. Chu, Yu-Wei Luke & Cuffe, Harold E, 2020. "Do Struggling Students Benefit From Continued Student Loan Access? Evidence From University and Beyond," Working Paper Series 21067, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    7. Michael Dinerstein & Constantine Yannelis & Ching-Tse Chen, 2023. "Debt Moratoria: Evidence from Student Loan Forbearance," CESifo Working Paper Series 10422, CESifo.
    8. Natalie Cox, 2017. "Pricing, Selection, and Welfare in the Student Loan Market: Evidence from Borrower Repayment Decisions," Working Papers 2017-2, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    9. Marco Di Maggio & Ankit Kalda & Vincent Yao, 2019. "Second Chance: Life without Student Debt," NBER Working Papers 25810, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Berrak Bahadir & Dora Gicheva, 2022. "Macroeconomic Implications of Student Debt: A State‐Level Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(8), pages 2273-2300, December.
    11. Mangrum, Daniel, 2022. "Personal finance education mandates and student loan repayment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 1-26.
    12. Jeffrey T. Denning & Todd R. Jones, 2021. "Maxed Out?: The Effect of Larger Student Loan Limits on Borrowing and Education Outcomes," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 56(4), pages 1113-1140.
    13. Adam Looney & Constantine Yannelis, 2015. "A Crisis in Student Loans? How Changes in the Characteristics of Borrowers and in the Institutions They Attended Contributed to Rising Loan Defaults," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(2 (Fall)), pages 1-89.
    14. Marx, Benjamin M. & Turner, Lesley J., 2020. "Paralysis by analysis? Effects of information on student loan take-up," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    15. Lance Lochner & Alexander Monge-Naranjo, 2014. "Student Loans and Repayment: Theory, Evidence and Policy," Working Papers 2014-40, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    16. Looney, Adam & Yannelis, Constantine, 2019. "How useful are default rates? Borrowers with large balances and student loan repayment," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 135-145.
    17. Rajeev Darolia, 2016. "An Experiment on Information Use in College Student Loan Decisions," Working Papers 16-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    18. Robert J. Gary-Bobo & Alain Trannoy, 2015. "Optimal student loans and graduate tax under moral hazard and adverse selection," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 46(3), pages 546-576, September.
    19. Abraham, Katharine G. & Filiz-Ozbay, Emel & Ozbay, Erkut Y. & Turner, Lesley J., 2020. "Framing effects, earnings expectations, and the design of student loan repayment schemes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    20. Dominique J. Baker & William R. Doyle, 2017. "Impact of Community College Student Debt Levels on Credit Accumulation," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 671(1), pages 132-153, May.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • H52 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Education
    • H81 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Governmental Loans; Loan Guarantees; Credits; Grants; Bailouts
    • I24 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Inequality

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bfi:wpaper:2020-169. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Toni Shears (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/mfichus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.