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Política fiscal subnacional y ciclos económicos en Colombia

Author

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  • Diana Ricciulli-Marín
  • Jaime Bonet-Morón
  • Gerson Javier Pérez-Valbuena

Abstract

Este documento estudia la relación de la política fiscal subnacional con los ciclos económicos en Colombia. Para ello, se estima un modelo dinámico de datos panel para municipios y departamentos durante el periodo 1990-2018. Los resultados señalan que, en promedio, la política fiscal subnacional en Colombia fue pro-cíclica en este periodo. No obstante, se encuentra una tendencia hacia menor pro-ciclicidad luego de las principales reformas al sistema de transferencias y la introducción de normas sobre responsabilidad fiscal subnacional. Las primeras buscaron un diseño menos pro-cíclico de las transferencias, mientras que las segundas fomentaron la disciplina y sosteniblidad de las finanzas locales. Por otra parte, se identifica un aumento reciente en la pro-ciclicidad de los gastos de inversión en los municipios de menor desarrollo y departamentos, lo cual coincide con el aumento en la participación de regalías en este grupo de entidades territoriales. **** ABSTRACT: This paper studies the relationship between subnational fiscal policy and economic cycles in Colombia. To do so, we estimate a dynamic panel data model for Colombian municipalities and departments during the period 1990-2018. The main findings show that, on average, subnational fiscal policy in Colombia was pro-cyclical in this period. However, results highlight lower pro-cyclicality following the main reforms to intergovernmental transfers and the introduction of subnational responsibility laws. The former led to a less pro-cyclical design of this source of revenues, while the latter fostered fiscal discipline and local finances' sustainability. Furthermore, we find evidence of higher pro-cyclicality of capital expenditures in less-developed municipalities and departments, which coincides with the increase in royalties' participation in this group of territorial entities.

Suggested Citation

  • Diana Ricciulli-Marín & Jaime Bonet-Morón & Gerson Javier Pérez-Valbuena, 2021. "Política fiscal subnacional y ciclos económicos en Colombia," Documentos de trabajo sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 295, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:region:295
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.32468/dtseru.295
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jonathan Rodden & Erik Wibbels, 2010. "Fiscal Decentralization And The Business Cycle: An Empirical Study Of Seven Federations," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 37-67, March.
    2. Jaime Bonet Morón & Gerson Javier P�rez-Valbuena & Diana Ricciulli-Mar�n, 2018. "¿Hay pereza fiscal territorial en Colombia?," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, vol. 21(2), pages 247-307.
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    6. Arena, Marco & Revilla, Julio E., 2009. "Pro-cyclical fiscal policy in brazil: evidence from the states," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5144, The World Bank.
    7. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    8. U. Michael Bergman & Michael Hutchison, 2020. "Fiscal procyclicality in emerging markets: The role of institutions and economic conditions," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 196-214, August.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures

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