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Poder de mercado y eventos climáticos adversos en un mercado de electricidad hidro-dominado

Author

Listed:
  • David Rios
  • Alex Perez
  • Jaime Carabali
  • Luis Meneses

Abstract

Estudiamos el efecto de los eventos climáticos adversos sobre los precios minoristas de la electricidad. Nos enfocamos en el caso colombiano dado que este mercado se encuentra hidro-dominado y expuesto al fenómeno de El Niño, el cual provoca una reducción notable del componente hidrológico de la generación de electricidad. Diseñamos un modelo estructural para entender la formación de los precios minoristas. Posteriormente, utilizamos el modelo para estudiar cómo responden los precios a eventos climáticos severos. Los resultados muestran que, cuando no hay presencia de El Niño, las firmas minoristas tienden a traspasar de forma más que completa los choques de costos a los precios. Por otro lado, no encontramos evidencia de que el traspaso difiera cuando hay presencia de El Niño. Esto implica que el efecto de El Niño sobre los precios minoristas corre a través de su efecto sobre los costos mayoristas, exclusivamente. Encontramos evidencia de que los precios minoristas incrementan en presencia de El Niño, debido al incremento de los precios spot en el mercado mayorista de electricidad. **** Abstract We study the effect of adverse weather events on retail electricity prices. We focus on the Colombian case given that this market is hydro-dominated and exposed to the El Niño phenomenon, which causes a notable reduction in the hydrological component of electricity generation. We design a structural model to understand the formation of retail prices. We then use the model to study how prices respond to severe weather events. The results show that, under normal conditions, retail firms have control over the pass-through of wholesale cost shocks to retail prices. However, we do not find evidence that the pass-through differs when El Niño is present. This implies that El Niño’s effect on retail prices runs through its effect on wholesale costs exclusively. We find evidence that retail prices increase in the presence of El Niño, due to the increase in spot prices in the wholesale electricity market.

Suggested Citation

  • David Rios & Alex Perez & Jaime Carabali & Luis Meneses, 2024. "Poder de mercado y eventos climáticos adversos en un mercado de electricidad hidro-dominado," Borradores de Economia 1266, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:1266
    DOI: 10.32468/be.1266
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • Q49 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Other
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • L12 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Monopoly; Monopolization Strategies
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities

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