IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdi/opques/qef_844_24.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Geoeconomic fragmentation and firms' financial performance

Author

Listed:
  • Alessandro D'Orazio

    (Sapienza University of Rome, European Central Bank)

  • Fabrizio Ferriani

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Andrea Gazzani

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

We introduce a novel firm-level revenue-weighted geopolitical risk index by integrating corporate revenue distribution with geopolitical risk across countries. Our findings reveal a significant real-financial feedback loop: firms with greater exposure to geopolitical risk have an increased probability of default, reduced market valuations and higher financing costs. Notably, the impact of this feedback loop has intensified since 2017, aligning with growing apprehension regarding economic fragmentation in firms' risk assessments.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandro D'Orazio & Fabrizio Ferriani & Andrea Gazzani, 2024. "Geoeconomic fragmentation and firms' financial performance," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 844, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_844_24
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2024-0844/QEF_844_24.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    2. Chen, Hao & Liao, Hua & Tang, Bao-Jun & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2016. "Impacts of OPEC's political risk on the international crude oil prices: An empirical analysis based on the SVAR models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 42-49.
    3. Tarek A Hassan & Stephan Hollander & Laurence van Lent & Ahmed Tahoun, 2019. "Firm-Level Political Risk: Measurement and Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(4), pages 2135-2202.
    4. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R Harvey & Christian T Lundblad & Stephan Siegel, 2014. "Political risk spreads," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 45(4), pages 471-493, May.
    5. King, Timothy & Loncan, Tiago & Khan, Zaheer, 2021. "Investment, leverage and political risk: Evidence from project-level FDI," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    6. Lehkonen, Heikki & Heimonen, Kari, 2015. "Democracy, political risks and stock market performance," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 77-99.
    7. Alessandro Borin & Gianmarco Cariola & Elena Gentili & Andrea Linarello & Michele Mancini & Tullia Padellini & Ludovic Panon & Enrico Sette, 2023. "Inputs in geopolitical distress: a risk assessment based on micro data," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 819, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Ferriani, Fabrizio & Gazzani, Andrea, 2023. "The invasion of Ukraine and the energy crisis: Comparative advantages in equity valuations," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PD).
    9. Silvia Albrizio & John Bluedorn & Christoffer Koch & Andrea Pescatori & Martin Stuermer, 2023. "Sectoral Shocks and the Role of Market Integration: The Case of Natural Gas," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 113, pages 43-46, May.
    10. Acharya, Viral V. & Lochstoer, Lars A. & Ramadorai, Tarun, 2013. "Limits to arbitrage and hedging: Evidence from commodity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 441-465.
    11. Feng, Chaonan & Han, Liyan & Vigne, Samuel & Xu, Yang, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and the dynamics of international capital flows," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    12. Lee, Kiryoung, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and household stock market participation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    13. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    14. Maria‐Grazia Attinasi & Lukas Boeckelmann & Baptiste Meunier, 2025. "The economic costs of supply chain decoupling," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(3), pages 598-627, March.
    15. Zmijewski, Me, 1984. "Methodological Issues Related To The Estimation Of Financial Distress Prediction Models," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22, pages 59-82.
    16. Shushanik Hakobyan & Sergii Meleshchuk & Robert Zymek, 2023. "Divided We Fall: Differential Exposure to Geopolitical Fragmentation in Trade," IMF Working Papers 2023/270, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aiyar, Shekhar & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2024. "Geoeconomic Fragmentation and "Connector" Countries," MPRA Paper 121726, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ceballos, Luis & Piljak, Vanja & Swinkels, Laurens, 2024. "Is firm-level political risk priced in the corporate bond market?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    2. Adra, Samer & Gao, Yang & Huang, Jin & Yuan, Jiayi, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and corporate payout policy," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    3. Huynh, Nhan & Le, Quynh Nga & Tran, Quang Thien, 2024. "Firm-level political risk and intellectual capital investment: Does managerial ability matter?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    4. Qian, Xianhang & Qiu, Shanyun, 2023. "Political risk and corporate international supply chain," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    5. Olayinka Oyekola & Meryem Duygun & Samuel Odewunmi & Temitope Fagbemi, 2023. "Political risk and external finance: Evidence from cross-country firm-level data," Discussion Papers 2312, University of Exeter, Department of Economics.
    6. Jésus Fernández-Villaverde & Tomohide Mineyama & Dongho Song & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, 2024. "Are We Fragmented Yet? Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation and Its Causal Effects," CESifo Working Paper Series 11192, CESifo.
    7. Rabeh Khalfaoui & Sami Ben Jabeur & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Wissal Ben Arfi, 2025. "The role of political risk, uncertainty, and crude oil in predicting stock markets: evidence from the UAE economy," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 345(2), pages 1105-1135, February.
    8. Jakubik, Adam & Ruta, Michele, 2023. "Trading with friends in uncertain times," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 768-780.
    9. Schlosky, Minh Tam Tammy & Karadas, Serkan & Stivers, Adam, 2024. "Forecasting U.S. Stock Returns Conditional on Geopolitical Risk and Business Cycles," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
    10. Ahmad, Muhammad Farooq & Aziz, Saqib & El-Khatib, Rwan & Kowalewski, Oskar, 2023. "Firm-level political risk and dividend payout," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    11. Nguyen, Huong Giang & Hoang, Khanh & Nguyen, Quan M.P. & Do, Hung Xuan & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2024. "Portfolio's weighted political risk and mutual fund performance: A text-based approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    12. Carney, Richard W. & El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane & Wang, He (Helen), 2024. "Geopolitical risk and the cost of capital in emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    13. Apergis, Nicholas & Hayat, Tasawar & Saeed, Tareq, 2021. "US partisan conflict uncertainty and oil prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    14. Lukas Timbate & Dongil Kim & Dereje Asrat & Hwang Sungjun, 2024. "Firm-level political uncertainty, corporate lobbying and risk-taking," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.
    15. Zhang, Xuan & Kim, Minjoo & Yan, Cheng & Zhao, Yang, 2024. "Default dependence in the insurance and banking sectors: A copula approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    16. Li, Chunyu & Lou, Chenxin & Luo, Dan & Xing, Kai, 2021. "Chinese corporate distress prediction using LASSO: The role of earnings management," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    17. Diakonova, Marina & Molina, Luis & Mueller, Hannes & Pérez, Javier J. & Rauh, Christopher, 2024. "The information content of conflict, social unrest and policy uncertainty measures for macroeconomic forecasting," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 5(4).
    18. Elizabeth Demers & Philip Joos, 2007. "IPO Failure Risk," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 333-371, May.
    19. Ali Uyar & Simone Pizzi & Fabio Caputo & Cemil Kuzey & Abdullah S. Karaman, 2022. "Do shareholders reward or punish risky firms due to CSR reporting and assurance?," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(5), pages 1596-1620, July.
    20. Campa, Domenico & Camacho-Miñano, María-del-Mar, 2015. "The impact of SME’s pre-bankruptcy financial distress on earnings management tools," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 222-234.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    geopolitical risk; fragmentation; financial performance; revenue exposure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F50 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - General
    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_844_24. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdigvit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.