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Balancing Act: Monetary Policy Responses to Natural Disasters

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  • Tatjana Dahlhaus
  • Alexander Ueberfeldt
  • Malik Shukayev

Abstract

Natural disasters pose complex challenges for monetary policy in resource-rich small open economies. Using an open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model calibrated to Canada, we embed stochastic disaster shocks affecting capital, productivity, and the commodity sector. Drawing on detailed historical data, we quantify disaster-specific transmission channels and show that most disasters act as supply shocks, reducing output and modestly raising inflation. The magnitude and persistence of these effects depend on disaster type, sectoral exposure, and spillovers through global trade and terms-of-trade channels. The framework provides a forward-looking assessment of climate-related risks and their implications for monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Tatjana Dahlhaus & Alexander Ueberfeldt & Malik Shukayev, 2026. "Balancing Act: Monetary Policy Responses to Natural Disasters," Staff Working Papers 26-28, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:26-28
    DOI: 10.34989/swp-2026-28
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thibaut Duprey & Victoria Fernandes, 2025. "Natural disasters and inflation in Canada," Staff Analytical Notes 2025-8, Bank of Canada.
    2. Alessandro Cantelmo & Nikos Fatouros & Giovanni Melina & Chris Papageorgiou, 2024. "Monetary Policy Under Natural Disaster Shocks," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(3), pages 1441-1497, August.
    3. W J Wouter Botzen & Olivier Deschenes & Mark Sanders, 2019. "The Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters: A Review of Models and Empirical Studies," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 13(2), pages 167-188.
    4. Cantelmo, Alessandro & Melina, Giovanni & Papageorgiou, Chris, 2023. "Macroeconomic outcomes in disaster-prone countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • D - Microeconomics
    • D6 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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