IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bis/bisblt/98.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Macroeconomic impact of extreme weather events

Author

Listed:
  • Torsten Ehlers
  • Jon Frost
  • Carlos Madeira
  • Ilhyock Shim

Abstract

Different types of extreme weather event have different transmission channels to economic activity and inflation. An analysis of eight major economies in the Americas shows that droughts reduce economic output over the two years after they occur due to lasting effects on agriculture, forestry and electricity production. It also shows that, while droughts and wildfires temporarily increase food prices and droughts and storms raise energy prices over the following three months, in general there is no persistent impact on inflation. Considering the trade-off between growth and inflation, monetary policy may have to react differently in different circumstances: by tightening if price impacts are large and threaten to become persistent, and by loosening if events destroy physical capital and have lasting effects on economic output.

Suggested Citation

  • Torsten Ehlers & Jon Frost & Carlos Madeira & Ilhyock Shim, 2025. "Macroeconomic impact of extreme weather events," BIS Bulletins 98, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:bisblt:98
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull98.pdf
    File Function: Full PDF document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull98.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Riccardo Colacito & Bridget Hoffmann & Toan Phan, 2019. "Temperature and Growth: A Panel Analysis of the United States," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(2-3), pages 313-368, March.
    2. von Peter, Goetz & von Dahlen, Sebastian & Saxena, Sweta, 2024. "Unmitigated disasters? Risk sharing and macroeconomic recovery in a large international panel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    3. W J Wouter Botzen & Olivier Deschenes & Mark Sanders, 2019. "The Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters: A Review of Models and Empirical Studies," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 13(2), pages 167-188.
    4. Alain N. Kabundi & Mr. Montfort Mlachila & Jiaxiong Yao, 2022. "How Persistent are Climate-Related Price Shocks? Implications for Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 2022/207, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Richhild Moessner, 2022. "Effects of Precipitation on Food Consumer Price Inflation," CESifo Working Paper Series 9961, CESifo.
    6. Kotz, Maximilian & Kuik, Friderike & Lis, Eliza & Nickel, Christiane, 2023. "The impact of global warming on inflation: averages, seasonality and extremes," Working Paper Series 2821, European Central Bank.
    7. Beirne, John & Dafermos, Yannis & Kriwoluzky, Alexander & Renzhi, Nuobu & Volz, Ulrich & Wittich, Jana, 2024. "Weather-related disasters and inflation in the euro area," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cunpu Li & Xuetong Zhang & Jing He, 2023. "Impact of Climate Change on Inflation in 26 Selected Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-22, August.
    2. Nicolás Aguila & Joscha Wullweber, 2024. "Greener and cheaper: green monetary policy in the era of inflation and high interest rates," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(1), pages 39-60, March.
    3. Tobias Kranz & Hamza Bennani & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2024. "Monetary Policy and Climate Change: Challenges and the Role of Major Central Banks," Research Papers in Economics 2024-01, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    4. Erwan Gautier & Christoph Grosse Steffen & Magali Marx & Paul Vertier, 2023. "Decomposing the Inflation Response to Weather-Related Disasters," Working papers 935, Banque de France.
    5. Cevik Serhan & Jalles Joao, 2024. "Eye of the Storm: The Impact of Climate Shocks on Inflation and Growth," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 75(2), pages 109-138.
    6. Serhan Cevik, João Tovar Jalles, 2023. "Eye of the Storm: The Impact of Climate Shocks on Inflation and Growth," Working Papers REM 2023/0276, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    7. Rising, James A. & Taylor, Charlotte & Ives, Matthew C. & Ward, Robert E.t., 2022. "Challenges and innovations in the economic evaluation of the risks of climate change," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114941, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Meltem Chadwick & Hulya Saygili, 2024. "Temperature, precipitation and food price inflation: Evidence from a panel of countries," Working Papers wp55, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre.
    9. Rising, James A. & Taylor, Charlotte & Ives, Matthew C. & Ward, Robert E.T., 2022. "Challenges and innovations in the economic evaluation of the risks of climate change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    10. Beirne, John & Dafermos, Yannis & Kriwoluzky, Alexander & Renzhi, Nuobu & Volz, Ulrich & Wittich, Jana, 2024. "Weather-related disasters and inflation in the euro area," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    11. Liao, Wenting & Sheng, Xin & Gupta, Rangan & Karmakar, Sayar, 2024. "Extreme weather shocks and state-level inflation of the United States," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    12. Hu, Haiqing & Wei, Wei & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2022. "Examining the impact of extreme temperature on green innovation in China: Evidence from city-level data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    13. Senni, Chiara Colesanti & von Jagow, Adrian, 2023. "Water risks for hydroelectricity generation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119256, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Pan, Changchun & Huang, Yuzhe & Jin, Long, 2024. "Natural disasters and corporate tax burden: Evidence from chinese energy sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    15. Stefan Borsky & Martin Jury, 2020. "The role of global supply chains in the transmission of weather induced production shocks," Graz Economics Papers 2020-13, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
    16. Hugo S. Gonçalves & Sérgio Moro, 2023. "On the economic impacts of COVID‐19: A text mining literature analysis," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 375-394, February.
    17. Jimmy Karlsson, 2021. "Temperature and Exports: Evidence from the United States," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 80(2), pages 311-337, October.
    18. Roman Horvath, 2020. "Natural Catastrophes and Financial Development: An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers IES 2020/14, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised May 2020.
    19. Maria M. Laurito & Elizabeth Frankenberg & Duncan Thomas, 2022. "Effects of Housing Aid on Psychosocial Health after a Disaster," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(12), pages 1-18, June.
    20. Samuel Juhel & Adrien Delahais & Vincent Viguie, 2023. "Robustness of the evaluation of indirect costs of natural disasters: example of the ARIO model," CIRED Working Papers hal-04196749, HAL.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:bisblt:98. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Martin Fessler (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bisssch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.