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Macroeconomic impact of extreme weather events

Author

Listed:
  • Torsten Ehlers
  • Jon Frost
  • Carlos Madeira
  • Ilhyock Shim

Abstract

Different types of extreme weather event have different transmission channels to economic activity and inflation. An analysis of eight major economies in the Americas shows that droughts reduce economic output over the two years after they occur due to lasting effects on agriculture, forestry and electricity production. It also shows that, while droughts and wildfires temporarily increase food prices and droughts and storms raise energy prices over the following three months, in general there is no persistent impact on inflation. Considering the trade-off between growth and inflation, monetary policy may have to react differently in different circumstances: by tightening if price impacts are large and threaten to become persistent, and by loosening if events destroy physical capital and have lasting effects on economic output.

Suggested Citation

  • Torsten Ehlers & Jon Frost & Carlos Madeira & Ilhyock Shim, 2025. "Macroeconomic impact of extreme weather events," BIS Bulletins 98, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:bisblt:98
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Kotz, Maximilian & Kuik, Friderike & Lis, Eliza & Nickel, Christiane, 2023. "The impact of global warming on inflation: averages, seasonality and extremes," Working Paper Series 2821, European Central Bank.
    5. von Peter, Goetz & von Dahlen, Sebastian & Saxena, Sweta, 2024. "Unmitigated disasters? Risk sharing and macroeconomic recovery in a large international panel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    6. Beirne, John & Dafermos, Yannis & Kriwoluzky, Alexander & Renzhi, Nuobu & Volz, Ulrich & Wittich, Jana, 2024. "Weather-related disasters and inflation in the euro area," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    7. W J Wouter Botzen & Olivier Deschenes & Mark Sanders, 2019. "The Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters: A Review of Models and Empirical Studies," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 13(2), pages 167-188.
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    Cited by:

    1. David Nefzi & Jolien Noels & Romana Peronaci & Christian Schmieder & Ünal Seven & Ömer K Seyhun & Bruno Tissot & Elena Triebskorn, 2025. "Addressing climate change data needs: the global debate and central banks' contribution," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Addressing climate change data needs: the central banks' contribution, volume 63, Bank for International Settlements.

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