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Determinantes del comercio internacional en tiempos de crisis


  • Soledad Zignago


El colapso del comercio mundial que siguio a la debacle financiera de Lehman Brothers fue severo, generalizado, repentino y sincronizado. Su principal explicacion reside en la composicion del comercio internacional: los bienes de capital e intermedios, que representan el 70 % del total, son tambien los mas sensibles a cambios de expectativas de la demanda y los mas dependientes de la financiacion externa. La introduccion del credito en una estimacion de tipo gravitatoria muestra que su impacto como determinante de los flujos comerciales bilaterales es menor que el de la demanda, y ha sido incluso menor durante la crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Soledad Zignago, 2010. "Determinantes del comercio internacional en tiempos de crisis," Working Papers 1016, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:bbv:wpaper:1016

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Iacovone, Leonardo & Zavacka, Veronika, 2009. "Banking crises and exports : lessons from the past," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5016, The World Bank.
    2. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Yvan Decreux & Lionel Fontagné & David Khoudour-Castéras, 2009. "Is Trade the Victim of Globalisation?," La Lettre du CEPII, CEPII research center, issue 291.
    3. Antoine Berthou & Charlotte Emlinger, 2009. "Crisis and Trade: Bad Times for High Quality," La Lettre du CEPII, CEPII research center, issue 293.
    4. Mary Amiti & David E. Weinstein, 2011. "Exports and Financial Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 126(4), pages 1841-1877.
    5. Bricongne, Jean-Charles & Fontagné, Lionel & Gaulier, Guillaume & Taglioni, Daria & Vicard, Vincent, 2012. "Firms and the global crisis: French exports in the turmoil," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 134-146.
    6. I-Hui Cheng & Howard J. Wall, 2005. "Controlling for heterogeneity in gravity models of trade and integration," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 49-63.
    7. Daisuke Hiratsuka, 2011. "Production Networks in Asia : A Case Study from the Hard Disk Drive Industry," Microeconomics Working Papers 23235, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    8. Guillaume Gaulier & Julien Martin & Isabelle Méjean & Soledad Zignago, 2008. "International Trade Price Indices," Working Papers 2008-10, CEPII research center.
    9. Malouche, Mariem, 2009. "Trade and trade finance developments in 14 developing countries post September 2008 - a World Bank survey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5138, The World Bank.
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    More about this item


    comercio internacional; crisis; escasez de financiacion; gravedad;

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade

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