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Bubbles and Persuasion with Second Order Uncertainty

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  • Sara Negrelli

Abstract

Recent empirical studies suggest that, during times of unexpected innovation, agents heterogeneously update their beliefs about an asset fundamental value, and they are uncertain about other agents’ beliefs on it. In this paper I show that, when there is uncertainty about the market sentiment, defined as other investors’ beliefs over an asset fundamental value, market manipulation can act through a previously unconsidered channel, by misleading agents’ learning on the market sentiment. This novel type of market manipulation becomes a severe concern with the recent diffusion of big data on agents’ beliefs, as it could strengthen existing financial bubbles, or even give rise to new ones.spect to anonymity; at the same time, the probability of the CBDC introduction increases if a return can be paid on it, and/or its implementation can guarantee at least the counterparty anonymity.

Suggested Citation

  • Sara Negrelli, 2018. "Bubbles and Persuasion with Second Order Uncertainty," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1876, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
  • Handle: RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp1876
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Miguel Faria-e-Castro & Joseba Martinez & Thomas Philippon, 2017. "Runs versus Lemons: Information Disclosure and Fiscal Capacity," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 84(4), pages 1683-1707.
    2. Antonio Doblas‐Madrid, 2012. "A Robust Model of Bubbles With Multidimensional Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(5), pages 1845-1893, September.
    3. Roland Benabou & Guy Laroque, 1992. "Using Privileged Information to Manipulate Markets: Insiders, Gurus, and Credibility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(3), pages 921-958.
    4. John R. Conlon, 2004. "Simple Finite Horizon Bubbles Robust to Higher Order Knowledge," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(3), pages 927-936, May.
    5. Alonso, Ricardo & Câmara, Odilon, 2016. "Political disagreement and information in elections," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 390-412.
    6. Basak, Suleyman, 2000. "A model of dynamic equilibrium asset pricing with heterogeneous beliefs and extraneous risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 63-95, January.
    7. Alonso, Ricardo & Câmara, Odilon, 2016. "Political disagreement and information in elections," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 390-412.
    8. Egan, Daniel & Merkle, Christoph & Weber, Martin, 2014. "Second-order beliefs and the individual investor," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 652-666.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bubbles; Heterogenous Priors; Higher-Order Beliefs; Market Manipulation; Bayesian Persuasion;

    JEL classification:

    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

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