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The simplest rational greater-fool bubble model

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  • Liu, Feng
  • Conlon, John R.

Abstract

We show that there exist models with rational agents, three periods, and five states of the world, which have a strong bubble in one of these states. However, no finite-horizon rational strong bubble model, with standard Walrasian markets, can have fewer than five states.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Feng & Conlon, John R., 2018. "The simplest rational greater-fool bubble model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 38-57.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:175:y:2018:i:c:p:38-57
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2018.01.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Ding, Cherng G. & Wang, Hung-Jui & Lee, Meng-Che & Hung, Wen-Chi & Jane, Ten-Der, 2021. "Assessing the reversal of investor sentiment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    2. Awaya, Yu & Iwasaki, Kohei & Watanabe, Makoto, 2022. "Rational bubbles and middlemen," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 17(4), November.
    3. Bao, Te & Zong, Jichuan, 2019. "The impact of interest rate policy on individual expectations and asset bubbles in experimental markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    4. Cerruti, Gianluca & Lombardini, Simone, 2022. "Financial bubbles as a recursive process lead by short-term strategies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 555-568.
    5. Ludovic Tangpi & Shichun Wang, 2023. "Optimal Bubble Riding with Price-dependent Entry: a Mean Field Game of Controls with Common Noise," Papers 2307.11340, arXiv.org.
    6. Yu Awaya & Kohei Iwasaki & Makoto Watanabe, 2024. "Money Is the Root of Asset Bubbles," CESifo Working Paper Series 10923, CESifo.
    7. Feng Liu & Joseph S. White & John R. Conlon, 2023. "A Three‐State Rational Greater‐Fool Bubble Model With Intertemporal Consumption Smoothing," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1565-1594, November.
    8. Dong, Feng & Jia, Yandong & Wang, Siqing, 2022. "Speculative Bubbles and Talent Misallocation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Greater-fool bubble; Asymmetric information;

    JEL classification:

    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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