IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arz/wpaper/eres2017_296.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Residential Real Estate, Risk, Return and Home Characteristics: Evidence from Sydney 2002-14

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Melser

Abstract

Residential real estate is a key component of household wealth. While we have some insight into the aggregate returns of this asset class---thanks to real estate price indexes---we have little understanding of the characteristics of investment in individual properties. This paper outlines and applies a methodology for estimating and examining the variation in risk and return for unique homes. We use large data sets of home prices and rents for Sydney, Australia, from 2002-14, to estimate flexible spline hedonic models which incorporate spatial and characteristics smoothing. Using these models we estimate total returns---the sum of capital gains and rental yield---for a large sample of properties for each time period. This enables use to consider the risk and return of investment in individual parcels of residential real estate and explore the benefits of diversification. As a reference point, we contrast housing with investment in equities. We find that there is dispersion in returns and their volatility---though significantly less than shares---and that this is tied to certain home characteristics. However, when we investigate the benefits of holding a diversified portfolio of homes over a single home we find they are small compared with the corresponding case for equities.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Melser, 2017. "Residential Real Estate, Risk, Return and Home Characteristics: Evidence from Sydney 2002-14," ERES eres2017_296, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    • Handle: RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2017_296
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://eres.architexturez.net/doc/oai-eres-id-eres2017-296
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://eres.architexturez.net/system/files/296.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. William F. Sharpe, 1963. "A Simplified Model for Portfolio Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(2), pages 277-293, January.
    2. Philippe Bracke, 2013. "House Prices and Rents: Micro Evidence from a Matched Dataset in Central London_x0003_," ERSA conference papers ersa13p112, European Regional Science Association.
    3. Simon N. Wood, 2011. "Fast stable restricted maximum likelihood and marginal likelihood estimation of semiparametric generalized linear models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 73(1), pages 3-36, January.
    4. Robert J. Hill & Daniel Melser, 2008. "Hedonic Imputation And The Price Index Problem: An Application To Housing," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 46(4), pages 593-609, October.
    5. Philippe Bracke, 2015. "House Prices and Rents: Microevidence from a Matched Data Set in Central London," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 43(2), pages 403-431, June.
    6. Gelain, Paolo & Lansing, Kevin J., 2014. "House prices, expectations, and time-varying fundamentals," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 3-25.
    7. Simon N. Wood, 2004. "Stable and Efficient Multiple Smoothing Parameter Estimation for Generalized Additive Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 99, pages 673-686, January.
    8. Bourassa, Steven C. & Hoesli, Martin & Peng, Vincent S., 2003. "Do housing submarkets really matter?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 12-28, March.
    9. Daniel P. McMillen, 2003. "Neighborhood house price indexes in Chicago: a Fourier repeat sales approach," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(1), pages 57-73, January.
    10. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-137, March.
    11. Melser, Daniel, 2017. "Disaggregated property price appreciation: The mixed repeat sales model," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 108-118.
    12. Daniel Melser & Adrian D. Lee, 2014. "Estimating the Excess Returns to Housing at a Disaggregated Level: An Application to Sydney 2003–2011," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(3), pages 756-790, September.
    13. Ruppert,David & Wand,M. P. & Carroll,R. J., 2003. "Semiparametric Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521785167.
    14. Eurostat, 2013. "Handbook on Residential Property Prices Indices," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 17280, December.
    15. Harding, John P. & Rosenthal, Stuart S. & Sirmans, C.F., 2007. "Depreciation of housing capital, maintenance, and house price inflation: Estimates from a repeat sales model," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 193-217, March.
    16. Marjorie Flavin & Takashi Yamashita, 2002. "Owner-Occupied Housing and the Composition of the Household Portfolio," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 345-362, March.
    17. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1990. "Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(3), pages 253-273, September.
    18. Robert J. Hill & Michael Scholz, 2014. "Incorporating Geospatial Data in House Price Indexes: A Hedonic Imputation Approach with Splines," Graz Economics Papers 2014-05, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
    19. Ruppert,David & Wand,M. P. & Carroll,R. J., 2003. "Semiparametric Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521780506.
    20. Inyoung Kim & Noah D. Cohen & Raymond J. Carroll, 2003. "Semiparametric Regression Splines in Matched Case-Control Studies," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 59(4), pages 1158-1169, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daniel Melser & Robert J. Hill, 2019. "Residential Real Estate, Risk, Return and Diversification: Some Empirical Evidence," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 111-146, July.
    2. Øystein Sørensen & Anders M. Fjell & Kristine B. Walhovd, 2023. "Longitudinal Modeling of Age-Dependent Latent Traits with Generalized Additive Latent and Mixed Models," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 88(2), pages 456-486, June.
    3. Giampiero Marra & Rosalba Radice & Till Bärnighausen & Simon N. Wood & Mark E. McGovern, 2017. "A Simultaneous Equation Approach to Estimating HIV Prevalence With Nonignorable Missing Responses," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 112(518), pages 484-496, April.
    4. Ge Bao & Guoliang Feng, 2018. "Testing the Dividend Discount Model in Housing Markets: the Role of Risk," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 677-701, November.
    5. Longhi, Christian & Musolesi, Antonio & Baumont, Catherine, 2014. "Modeling structural change in the European metropolitan areas during the process of economic integration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 395-407.
    6. Daniel Melser, 2023. "Selection Bias in Housing Price Indexes: The Characteristics Repeat Sales Approach," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(3), pages 623-637, June.
    7. Basile, Roberto & Durbán, María & Mínguez, Román & María Montero, Jose & Mur, Jesús, 2014. "Modeling regional economic dynamics: Spatial dependence, spatial heterogeneity and nonlinearities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 229-245.
    8. Morteza Amini & Mahdi Roozbeh & Nur Anisah Mohamed, 2024. "Separation of the Linear and Nonlinear Covariates in the Sparse Semi-Parametric Regression Model in the Presence of Outliers," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-17, January.
    9. Schmidt, Rouven & Kneib, Thomas, 2023. "Multivariate distributional stochastic frontier models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    10. Marra, Giampiero & Radice, Rosalba, 2017. "Bivariate copula additive models for location, scale and shape," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 99-113.
    11. Nadja Klein & Thomas Kneib & Giampiero Marra & Rosalba Radice & Slawa Rokicki & Mark E. McGovern, 2018. "Mixed Binary-Continuous Copula Regression Models with Application to Adverse Birth Outcomes," CHaRMS Working Papers 18-06, Centre for HeAlth Research at the Management School (CHaRMS).
    12. Rasheed A. Adeyemi & Temesgen Zewotir & Shaun Ramroop, 2016. "Semiparametric Multinomial Ordinal Model to Analyze Spatial Patterns of Child Birth Weight in Nigeria," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-22, November.
    13. Gressani, Oswaldo & Lambert, Philippe, 2021. "Laplace approximations for fast Bayesian inference in generalized additive models based on P-splines," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    14. Roberto Basile, 2014. "Regional productivity growth in Europe: a Schumpeterian perspective," Gecomplexity Discussion Paper Series 1, Action IS1104 "The EU in the new complex geography of economic systems: models, tools and policy evaluation", revised Nov 2014.
    15. Gerhard Tutz & Jan Gertheiss, 2014. "Rating Scales as Predictors—The Old Question of Scale Level and Some Answers," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 357-376, July.
    16. Maike Hohberg & Francesco Donat & Giampiero Marra & Thomas Kneib, 2021. "Beyond unidimensional poverty analysis using distributional copula models for mixed ordered‐continuous outcomes," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1365-1390, November.
    17. Musolesi Antonio & Mazzanti Massimiliano, 2014. "Nonlinearity, heterogeneity and unobserved effects in the carbon dioxide emissions-economic development relation for advanced countries," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(5), pages 1-21, December.
    18. Gertheiss, Jan & Goldsmith, Jeff & Staicu, Ana-Maria, 2017. "A note on modeling sparse exponential-family functional response curves," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 46-52.
    19. Wood, Simon N., 2016. "Just Another Gibbs Additive Modeler: Interfacing JAGS and mgcv," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 75(i07).
    20. Reiss Philip T. & Huang Lei, 2012. "Smoothness Selection for Penalized Quantile Regression Splines," The International Journal of Biostatistics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-27, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hedonic regression; House Prices; market model; Residential Real Estate; smoothing spline;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2017_296. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Architexturez Imprints (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eressea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.