IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/jrefec/v59y2019i1d10.1007_s11146-018-9668-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Residential Real Estate, Risk, Return and Diversification: Some Empirical Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Melser

    (Monash University)

  • Robert J. Hill

    (University of Graz)

Abstract

This paper outlines and applies a methodology for estimating and examining the variation in risk and return for individual homes. This is important because most households own individual properties and the risk and return profile of each of these may differ. We use large data sets of home prices and rents for Sydney, Australia, from 2002-16, and estimate flexible smoothing spline hedonic models. These models are used to construct total returns—the sum of capital gains and the rental yield net of costs—for the homes in our data. We find that Sydney homes had, on average, both higher returns than shares and much lower risk. This gave them a far superior Sharpe ratio. Moreover, while we find that shares benefit to a greater extent from diversification than homes, the Sharpe ratio of a large portfolio of shares was still well below that of the average single home. Interestingly, we find that much of the variation in risk and return across properties can be explained by observable home characteristics. In particular houses had stronger returns than did apartments.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Melser & Robert J. Hill, 2019. "Residential Real Estate, Risk, Return and Diversification: Some Empirical Evidence," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 111-146, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:59:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s11146-018-9668-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-018-9668-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11146-018-9668-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. William F. Sharpe, 1963. "A Simplified Model for Portfolio Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(2), pages 277-293, January.
    2. Simon N. Wood, 2011. "Fast stable restricted maximum likelihood and marginal likelihood estimation of semiparametric generalized linear models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 73(1), pages 3-36, January.
    3. Gelfand, Alan E, et al, 1998. "Spatio-Temporal Modeling of Residential Sales Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 312-321, July.
    4. Robert J. Hill & Daniel Melser, 2008. "Hedonic Imputation And The Price Index Problem: An Application To Housing," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 46(4), pages 593-609, October.
    5. Hill, Robert J. & Syed, Iqbal A., 2016. "Hedonic price–rent ratios, user cost, and departures from equilibrium in the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 60-72.
    6. Philippe Bracke, 2015. "House Prices and Rents: Microevidence from a Matched Data Set in Central London," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 43(2), pages 403-431, June.
    7. Simon N. Wood, 2004. "Stable and Efficient Multiple Smoothing Parameter Estimation for Generalized Additive Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 99, pages 673-686, January.
    8. Bourassa, Steven C. & Hoesli, Martin & Peng, Vincent S., 2003. "Do housing submarkets really matter?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 12-28, March.
    9. Daniel P. McMillen, 2003. "Neighborhood house price indexes in Chicago: a Fourier repeat sales approach," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(1), pages 57-73, January.
    10. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-137, March.
    11. Melser, Daniel, 2017. "Disaggregated property price appreciation: The mixed repeat sales model," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 108-118.
    12. Daniel Melser & Adrian D. Lee, 2014. "Estimating the Excess Returns to Housing at a Disaggregated Level: An Application to Sydney 2003–2011," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(3), pages 756-790, September.
    13. Davis, Morris A. & Heathcote, Jonathan, 2007. "The price and quantity of residential land in the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2595-2620, November.
    14. Marc K. Francke & Gerjan A. Vos, 2004. "The Hierarchical Trend Model for Property Valuation and Local Price Indices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 28(2_3), pages 179-208, March.
    15. Shiller, Robert J., 1993. "The theory of index-based futures and options markets," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 8(2), pages 163-178.
    16. Harding, John P. & Rosenthal, Stuart S. & Sirmans, C.F., 2007. "Depreciation of housing capital, maintenance, and house price inflation: Estimates from a repeat sales model," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 193-217, March.
    17. Robert J. Hill & Michael Scholz, 2018. "Can Geospatial Data Improve House Price Indexes? A Hedonic Imputation Approach with Splines," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 64(4), pages 737-756, December.
    18. Eli Beracha & Hilla Skiba, 2013. "Findings from a Cross-Sectional Housing Risk-Factor Model," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 289-309, August.
    19. Marjorie Flavin & Takashi Yamashita, 2002. "Owner-Occupied Housing and the Composition of the Household Portfolio," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 345-362, March.
    20. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1990. "Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(3), pages 253-273, September.
    21. Alan E. Gelfand & Mark D. Ecker & John R. Knight & C. F. Sirmans, 2004. "The Dynamics of Location in Home Price," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 149-166, September.
    22. Goswami, Gautam & Tan, Sinan, 2012. "Pricing the US residential asset through the rent flow: A cross-sectional study," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2742-2756.
    23. Raphael W. Bostic & Stanley D. Longhofer & Christian L. Redfearn, 2007. "Land Leverage: Decomposing Home Price Dynamics," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 35(2), pages 183-208, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daniel Melser, 2017. "Residential Real Estate, Risk, Return and Home Characteristics: Evidence from Sydney 2002-14," ERES eres2017_296, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    2. Melser, Daniel, 2017. "Disaggregated property price appreciation: The mixed repeat sales model," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 108-118.
    3. Davis, Morris A. & Larson, William D. & Oliner, Stephen D. & Shui, Jessica, 2021. "The price of residential land for counties, ZIP codes, and census tracts in the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 413-431.
    4. Daniel Melser & Adrian D. Lee, 2014. "Estimating the Excess Returns to Housing at a Disaggregated Level: An Application to Sydney 2003–2011," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(3), pages 756-790, September.
    5. Ge Bao & Guoliang Feng, 2018. "Testing the Dividend Discount Model in Housing Markets: the Role of Risk," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 677-701, November.
    6. Diewert, Erwin & Shimizu, Chihiro, 2019. "Residential Property Price Indexes: Spatial Coordinates versus Neighbourhood Dummy Variables," Microeconomics.ca working papers erwin_diewert-2019-11, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 10 Jan 2020.
    7. Philippe Bracke, 2013. "House Prices and Rents: Micro Evidence from a Matched Dataset in Central London_x0003_," ERSA conference papers ersa13p112, European Regional Science Association.
    8. Baltagi, Badi H. & Li, Jing, 2015. "Cointegration of matched home purchases and rental price indexes — Evidence from Singapore," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 80-88.
    9. Piazzesi, M. & Schneider, M., 2016. "Housing and Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1547-1640, Elsevier.
    10. Elias Oikarinen & Janne Engblom, 2012. "Regional differences in housing price dynamics: panel data evidence," ERES eres2012_059, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    11. Hill, Robert J. & Syed, Iqbal A., 2016. "Hedonic price–rent ratios, user cost, and departures from equilibrium in the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 60-72.
    12. Philippe Bracke, 2015. "House Prices and Rents: Microevidence from a Matched Data Set in Central London," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 43(2), pages 403-431, June.
    13. Alexander Bogin & William Doerner & William Larson, 2019. "Local House Price Dynamics: New Indices and Stylized Facts," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 47(2), pages 365-398, June.
    14. Mayock, Tom & Malacrida, Rachel Spritzer, 2018. "Socioeconomic and racial disparities in the financial returns to homeownership," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 80-96.
    15. Ghysels, Eric & Plazzi, Alberto & Valkanov, Rossen & Torous, Walter, 2013. "Forecasting Real Estate Prices," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 509-580, Elsevier.
    16. Diewert, W. Erwin & Nishimura , Kiyohiko & Shimizu, Chihiro & Watanabe, Tsutomu, 2014. "Residential Property Price Indexes for Japan: An Outline of the Japanese Official RPPI," Economics working papers erwin_diewert-2014-17, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 27 Mar 2014.
    17. Diewert, Erwin & Shimizu, Chihiro, 2015. "Residential Property Price Indices For Tokyo," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(8), pages 1659-1714, December.
    18. Charles Leung, 2007. "Equilibrium Correlations of Asset Price and Return," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 233-256, February.
    19. Erwin Diewert & Chihiro Shimizu, 2017. "Alternative Approaches to Commercial Property Price Indexes for Tokyo," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 63(3), pages 492-519, September.
    20. Duca, John V & Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 2011. "Shifting Credit Standards and the Boom and Bust in US House Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 8361, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Residential real estate; Hedonic regression; Risk and return; Diversification;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:59:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s11146-018-9668-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.