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Coupled continuous time random walks in finance

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  • Mark M. Meerschaert
  • Enrico Scalas

Abstract

Continuous time random walks (CTRWs) are used in physics to model anomalous diffusion, by incorporating a random waiting time between particle jumps. In finance, the particle jumps are log-returns and the waiting times measure delay between transactions. These two random variables (log-return and waiting time) are typically not independent. For these coupled CTRW models, we can now compute the limiting stochastic process (just like Brownian motion is the limit of a simple random walk), even in the case of heavy tailed (power-law) price jumps and/or waiting times. The probability density functions for this limit process solve fractional partial differential equations. In some cases, these equations can be explicitly solved to yield descriptions of long-term price changes, based on a high-resolution model of individual trades that includes the statistical dependence between waiting times and the subsequent log-returns. In the heavy tailed case, this involves operator stable space-time random vectors that generalize the familiar stable models. In this paper, we will review the fundamental theory and present two applications with tick-by-tick stock and futures data.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark M. Meerschaert & Enrico Scalas, 2006. "Coupled continuous time random walks in finance," Papers physics/0608281, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:physics/0608281
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bertram, William K, 2004. "An empirical investigation of Australian Stock Exchange data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 341(C), pages 533-546.
    2. Mainardi, Francesco & Raberto, Marco & Gorenflo, Rudolf & Scalas, Enrico, 2000. "Fractional calculus and continuous-time finance II: the waiting-time distribution," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 287(3), pages 468-481.
    3. Raberto, Marco & Scalas, Enrico & Mainardi, Francesco, 2002. "Waiting-times and returns in high-frequency financial data: an empirical study," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 314(1), pages 749-755.
    4. Scalas, Enrico & Gorenflo, Rudolf & Mainardi, Francesco, 2000. "Fractional calculus and continuous-time finance," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 284(1), pages 376-384.
    5. Scheffler, Hans-Peter, 1999. "On estimation of the spectral measure of certain nonnormal operator stable laws," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 385-392, July.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Enrico Scalas & Mauro Politi, 2012. "A parsimonious model for intraday European option pricing," Papers 1202.4332, arXiv.org.
    2. Greenwood, Priscilla E. & Schick, Anton & Wefelmeyer, Wolfgang, 2011. "Estimating the inter-arrival time density of Markov renewal processes under structural assumptions on the transition distribution," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 277-282, February.
    3. Cohen, Serge & Meerschaert, Mark M. & Rosinski, Jan, 2010. "Modeling and simulation with operator scaling," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 120(12), pages 2390-2411, December.
    4. David, S.A. & Machado, J.A.T. & Quintino, D.D. & Balthazar, J.M., 2016. "Partial chaos suppression in a fractional order macroeconomic model," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 55-68.
    5. repec:eee:apmaco:v:315:y:2017:i:c:p:445-452 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Ali Balc─▒, Mehmet, 2017. "Time fractional capital-induced labor migration model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 477(C), pages 91-98.
    7. repec:eee:apmaco:v:320:y:2018:i:c:p:302-318 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Schumer, Rina & Baeumer, Boris & Meerschaert, Mark M., 2011. "Extremal behavior of a coupled continuous time random walk," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(3), pages 505-511.
    9. Meerschaert, Mark M. & Nane, Erkan & Xiao, Yimin, 2013. "Fractal dimension results for continuous time random walks," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(4), pages 1083-1093.
    10. Straka, P. & Henry, B.I., 2011. "Lagging and leading coupled continuous time random walks, renewal times and their joint limits," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 324-336, February.
    11. Meerschaert, Mark M. & Scheffler, Hans-Peter, 2008. "Triangular array limits for continuous time random walks," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 118(9), pages 1606-1633, September.

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