Coupled continuous time random walks in finance
Continuous time random walks (CTRWs) are used in physics to model anomalous diffusion, by incorporating a random waiting time between particle jumps. In finance, the particle jumps are log-returns and the waiting times measure delay between transactions. These two random variables (log-return and waiting time) are typically not independent. For these coupled CTRW models, we can now compute the limiting stochastic process (just like Brownian motion is the limit of a simple random walk), even in the case of heavy tailed (power-law) price jumps and/or waiting times. The probability density functions for this limit process solve fractional partial differential equations. In some cases, these equations can be explicitly solved to yield descriptions of long-term price changes, based on a high-resolution model of individual trades that includes the statistical dependence between waiting times and the subsequent log-returns. In the heavy tailed case, this involves operator stable space-time random vectors that generalize the familiar stable models. In this paper, we will review the fundamental theory and present two applications with tick-by-tick stock and futures data.
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- Raberto, Marco & Scalas, Enrico & Mainardi, Francesco, 2002.
"Waiting-times and returns in high-frequency financial data: an empirical study,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,
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- Scalas, Enrico & Gorenflo, Rudolf & Mainardi, Francesco, 2000. "Fractional calculus and continuous-time finance," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 284(1), pages 376-384.
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- Francesco Mainardi & Marco Raberto & Rudolf Gorenflo & Enrico Scalas, 2004.
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- Mainardi, Francesco & Raberto, Marco & Gorenflo, Rudolf & Scalas, Enrico, 2000. "Fractional calculus and continuous-time finance II: the waiting-time distribution," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 287(3), pages 468-481.
- Francesco Mainardi & Marco Raberto & Rudolf Gorenflo & Enrico Scalas, 2000. "Fractional calculus and continuous-time finance II: the waiting-time distribution," Papers cond-mat/0006454, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2000.
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