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Varying reference-point salience

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  • Alex Krumer
  • Felix Otto
  • Tim Pawlowski

Abstract

The salience of reference points and expectations may significantly influence the loss aversion mechanism in effort provision. We exploit a natural experiment where highly professional and incentivized individuals perform their task in a setting with exogenous variation of reference-point salience. While a relevant reference point is salient in some cases, where it influences individuals' expectations, it is obscured in others. This enables us to examine the interplay between reference-point salience and expectation-based loss aversion in shaping effort provision. Exploiting quasi-random variation around the reference point, our regression discontinuity analyses reveal that individuals with positive expectations outperform those with negative expectations only when the reference point is salient.

Suggested Citation

  • Alex Krumer & Felix Otto & Tim Pawlowski, 2025. "Varying reference-point salience," Papers 2506.13382, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2506.13382
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