IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2312.00266.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Optimal Consumption--Investment Problems under Time-Varying Incomplete Preferences

Author

Listed:
  • Weixuan Xia

Abstract

The main objective of this paper is to develop a martingale-type solution to optimal consumption--investment choice problems ([Merton, 1969] and [Merton, 1971]) under time-varying incomplete preferences driven by externalities such as patience, socialization effects, and market volatility. The market is composed of multiple risky assets and multiple consumption goods, while in addition there are multiple fluctuating preference parameters with inexact values connected to imprecise tastes. Utility maximization is a multi-criteria problem with possibly function-valued criteria. To come up with a complete characterization of the solutions, first we motivate and introduce a set-valued stochastic process for the dynamics of multi-utility indices and formulate the optimization problem in a topological vector space. Then, we modify a classical scalarization method allowing for infiniteness and randomness in dimensions and prove results of equivalence to the original problem. Illustrative examples are given to demonstrate practical interests and method applicability progressively. The link between the original problem and a dual problem is also discussed, relatively briefly. Finally, using Malliavin calculus with stochastic geometry, we find optimal investment policies to be generally set-valued, each of whose selectors admits a four-way decomposition involving an additional indecisiveness risk-hedging portfolio. Our results touch on new directions for optimal consumption--investment choices in the presence of incomparability and time inconsistency, also signaling potentially testable assumptions on the variability of asset prices. Simulation techniques for set-valued processes are studied for how solved optimal policies can be computed in practice.

Suggested Citation

  • Weixuan Xia, 2023. "Optimal Consumption--Investment Problems under Time-Varying Incomplete Preferences," Papers 2312.00266, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2312.00266
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2312.00266
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Hélène Rey, 2013. "Home Bias in Open Economy Financial Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(1), pages 63-115, March.
    2. Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & Doriana Ruffino, 2013. "Alpha as Ambiguity: Robust Mean‐Variance Portfolio Analysis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(3), pages 1075-1113, May.
    3. Bollerslev, Tim & Gibson, Michael & Zhou, Hao, 2011. "Dynamic estimation of volatility risk premia and investor risk aversion from option-implied and realized volatilities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 235-245, January.
    4. Sautua, Santiago I., 2017. "Does uncertainty cause inertia in decision making? An experimental study of the role of regret aversion and indecisiveness," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 1-14.
    5. Luca Rigotti & Chris Shannon, 2005. "Uncertainty and Risk in Financial Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(1), pages 203-243, January.
    6. Loomes, Graham & Sugden, Robert, 1982. "Regret Theory: An Alternative Theory of Rational Choice under Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 805-824, December.
    7. Larry G. Epstein & Shaolin Ji, 2013. "Ambiguous Volatility and Asset Pricing in Continuous Time," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(7), pages 1740-1786.
    8. Kelsey, David & Yalcin, Erkan, 2007. "The arbitrage pricing theorem with incomplete preferences," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 90-105, July.
    9. Doidge, Craig & Griffin, John & Williamson, Rohan, 2006. "Measuring the economic importance of exchange rate exposure," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 550-576, October.
    10. Lyasoff, Andrew, 2017. "Stochastic Methods in Asset Pricing," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026203655x, December.
    11. Merton, Robert C., 1971. "Optimum consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous-time model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 373-413, December.
    12. Starr, Ross M, 1969. "Quasi-Equilibria in Markets with Non-Convex Preferences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(1), pages 25-38, January.
    13. Liu, Liping, 2004. "A new foundation for the mean-variance analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 229-242, October.
    14. Zongxia Liang & Ming Ma, 2020. "Robust consumption‐investment problem under CRRA and CARA utilities with time‐varying confidence sets," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(3), pages 1035-1072, July.
    15. Mandler, Michael, 2005. "Incomplete preferences and rational intransitivity of choice," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 255-277, February.
    16. Keeney,Ralph L. & Raiffa,Howard, 1993. "Decisions with Multiple Objectives," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521438834.
    17. Loomes, Graham & Starmer, Chris & Sugden, Robert, 1991. "Observing Violations of Transitivity by Experimental Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 425-439, March.
    18. Janssen, Marco A. & Jager, Wander, 2001. "Fashions, habits and changing preferences: Simulation of psychological factors affecting market dynamics," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 745-772, December.
    19. Marina Agranov & Pietro Ortoleva, 2017. "Stochastic Choice and Preferences for Randomization," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(1), pages 40-68.
    20. Dubra, Juan, 2009. "A theory of time preferences over risky outcomes," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(9-10), pages 576-588, September.
    21. Luciano Campi & Mark Owen, 2011. "Multivariate utility maximization with proportional transaction costs," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 461-499, September.
    22. Ok, Efe A. & Masatlioglu, Yusufcan, 2007. "A theory of (relative) discounting," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 214-245, November.
    23. Graham Loomes & Ganna Pogrebna, 2014. "Measuring Individual Risk Attitudes when Preferences are Imprecise," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(576), pages 569-593, May.
    24. Jérôme B. Detemple & Ren Garcia & Marcel Rindisbacher, 2003. "A Monte Carlo Method for Optimal Portfolios," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 401-446, February.
    25. Dubra, Juan & Maccheroni, Fabio & Ok, Efe A., 2004. "Expected utility theory without the completeness axiom," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 118-133, March.
    26. Andreas H. Hamel & Andreas Löhne, 2014. "Lagrange Duality in Set Optimization," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 161(2), pages 368-397, May.
    27. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5980 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Erzo G. J. Luttmer & Thomas Mariotti, 2003. "Subjective Discounting in an Exchange Economy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(5), pages 959-989, October.
    29. Jean-Pierre Fouque & George Papanicolaou & K. Ronnie Sircar, 2000. "Mean-Reverting Stochastic Volatility," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(01), pages 101-142.
    30. Michał Kisielewicz, 2020. "Set-Valued Stochastic Integrals and Applications," Springer Optimization and Its Applications, Springer, number 978-3-030-40329-4, September.
    31. Hiai, Fumio & Umegaki, Hisaharu, 1977. "Integrals, conditional expectations, and martingales of multivalued functions," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 149-182, March.
    32. Deparis, Stéphane & Mousseau, Vincent & Öztürk, Meltem & Pallier, Christophe & Huron, Caroline, 2012. "When conflict induces the expression of incomplete preferences," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 221(3), pages 593-602.
    33. Levy, Haim & Levy, Moshe, 2014. "The home bias is here to stay," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 29-40.
    34. Evren, Özgür, 2014. "Scalarization methods and expected multi-utility representations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 30-63.
    35. Eduard Gaar & David Scherer & Dirk Schiereck, 2022. "The home bias and the local bias: A survey," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 72(1), pages 21-57, February.
    36. Ok, Efe A., 2002. "Utility Representation of an Incomplete Preference Relation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 429-449, June.
    37. Efe A. Ok & Pietro Ortoleva & Gil Riella, 2012. "Incomplete Preferences Under Uncertainty: Indecisiveness in Beliefs versus Tastes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(4), pages 1791-1808, July.
    38. Saul Gass & Thomas Saaty, 1955. "The computational algorithm for the parametric objective function," Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(1‐2), pages 39-45, March.
    39. Huiling Wu & Chengguo Weng & Yan Zeng, 2018. "Equilibrium consumption and portfolio decisions with stochastic discount rate and time-varying utility functions," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 40(2), pages 541-582, March.
    40. Merton, Robert C, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 247-257, August.
    41. Nishimura, Hiroki & Ok, Efe A., 2016. "Utility representation of an incomplete and nontransitive preference relation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 164-185.
    42. Galaabaatar, Tsogbadral & Karni, Edi, 2012. "Expected multi-utility representations," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 242-246.
    43. repec:dau:papers:123456789/2318 is not listed on IDEAS
    44. Cettolin, Elena & Riedl, Arno, 2019. "Revealed preferences under uncertainty: Incomplete preferences and preferences for randomization," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 547-585.
    45. Joseph Eisenhauer & Luigi Ventura, 2003. "Survey measures of risk aversion and prudence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(13), pages 1477-1484.
    46. Mrad, Mona & Majdalani, Joelle & Cui, Charles Chi & El Khansa, Zeinab, 2020. "Brand addiction in the contexts of luxury and fast-fashion brands," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    47. Evren, Özgür & Ok, Efe A., 2011. "On the multi-utility representation of preference relations," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(4-5), pages 554-563.
    48. Eric Danan & Anthony Ziegelmeyer, 2006. "Are preferences complete? An experimental measurement of indecisiveness under risk," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2006-01, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Qiyan Ong & Jianying Qiu, 2023. "Paying for randomization and indecisiveness," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 67(1), pages 45-72, August.
    2. Cettolin, Elena & Riedl, Arno, 2019. "Revealed preferences under uncertainty: Incomplete preferences and preferences for randomization," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 547-585.
    3. Gerasímou, Georgios, 2010. "Consumer theory with bounded rational preferences," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(5), pages 708-714, September.
    4. Pivato, Marcus, 2013. "Multiutility representations for incomplete difference preorders," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 196-220.
    5. Özgür Evren, 2012. "Scalarization Methods and Expected Multi-Utility Representations," Working Papers w0174, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    6. Evren, Özgür, 2014. "Scalarization methods and expected multi-utility representations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 30-63.
    7. Cosimo Munari, 2020. "Multi-utility representations of incomplete preferences induced by set-valued risk measures," Papers 2009.04151, arXiv.org.
    8. Elias Bouacida, 2021. "Identifying Choice Correspondences," Working Papers 327800275, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    9. Itzhak Gilboa & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & David Schmeidler, 2010. "Objective and Subjective Rationality in a Multiple Prior Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(2), pages 755-770, March.
    10. Eric Danan, 2010. "Randomization vs. Selection: How to Choose in the Absence of Preference?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(3), pages 503-518, March.
    11. Faro, José Heleno, 2015. "Variational Bewley preferences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 699-729.
    12. McCarthy, David & Mikkola, Kalle & Thomas, Teruji, 2021. "Expected utility theory on mixture spaces without the completeness axiom," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    13. Gorno, Leandro & Rivello, Alessandro T., 2023. "A maximum theorem for incomplete preferences," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    14. Elena Cettolin & Arno Riedl, 2015. "Revealed Incomplete Preferences under Uncertainty," CESifo Working Paper Series 5359, CESifo.
    15. Robert G. Chambers & Tigran Melkonyan & John Quiggin, 2022. "Incomplete preferences, willingness to pay, and willingness to accept," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 74(3), pages 727-761, October.
    16. Cosimo Munari, 2021. "Multi-utility representations of incomplete preferences induced by set-valued risk measures," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 77-99, January.
    17. Leandro Gorno, 2018. "The structure of incomplete preferences," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 66(1), pages 159-185, July.
    18. repec:hal:psewpa:halshs-01998001 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Elias Bouacida, 2021. "Identifying Choice Correspondences," Working Papers halshs-01998001, HAL.
    20. Guo, Liang, 2021. "Contextual deliberation and the choice-valuation preference reversal," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    21. Leandro Nascimento, 2011. "Remarks on the consumer problem under incomplete preferences," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 70(1), pages 95-110, January.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2312.00266. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.