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Determining Fundamental Supply and Demand Curves in a Wholesale Electricity Market

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  • Sergei Kulakov
  • Florian Ziel

Abstract

In this paper we develop a novel method of wholesale electricity market modeling. Our optimization-based model decomposes wholesale supply and demand curves into buy and sell orders of individual market participants. In doing so, the model detects and removes arbitrage orders. As a result, we construct an innovative fundamental model of a wholesale electricity market. First, our fundamental demand curve has a unique composition. The demand curve lies in between the wholesale demand curve and a perfectly inelastic demand curve. Second, our fundamental supply and demand curves contain only actual (i.e. non-arbitrage) transactions with physical assets on buy and sell sides. Third, these transactions are designated to one of the three groups of wholesale electricity market participants: retailers, suppliers, or utility companies. To evaluate the performance of our model, we use the German wholesale market data. Our fundamental model yields a more precise approximation of the actual load values than a model with perfectly inelastic demand. Moreover, we conduct a study of wholesale demand elasticities. The obtained conclusions regarding wholesale demand elasticity are consistent with the existing academic literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergei Kulakov & Florian Ziel, 2019. "Determining Fundamental Supply and Demand Curves in a Wholesale Electricity Market," Papers 1903.11383, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2019.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1903.11383
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    Cited by:

    1. Simon Hirsch & Florian Ziel, 2022. "Simulation-based Forecasting for Intraday Power Markets: Modelling Fundamental Drivers for Location, Shape and Scale of the Price Distribution," Papers 2211.13002, arXiv.org.
    2. Sergei Kulakov, 2019. "X-model: further development and possible modifications," Papers 1907.09206, arXiv.org.

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