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A framework for simulating systemic risk and its application to the South African banking sector

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  • Nadine M Walters
  • Conrad Beyers
  • Gusti van Zyl
  • Rolf van den Heever

Abstract

We present a network-based framework for simulating systemic risk that considers shock propagation in banking systems. In particular, the framework allows the modeller to reflect a top-down framework where a shock to one bank in the system affects the solvency and liquidity position of other banks, through systemic market risks and consequential liquidity strains. We illustrate the framework with an application using South African bank balance sheet data. Spikes in simulated assessments of systemic risk agree closely with spikes in documented subjective assessments of this risk. This indicates that network models can be useful for monitoring systemic risk levels. The model results are sensitive to liquidity risk and market sentiment and therefore the related parameters are important considerations when using a network approach to systemic risk modelling.

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  • Nadine M Walters & Conrad Beyers & Gusti van Zyl & Rolf van den Heever, 2018. "A framework for simulating systemic risk and its application to the South African banking sector," Papers 1811.04223, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1811.04223
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Pierre Nkou Mananga & Shiqiang Lin & Hairui Zhang, 2023. "A network approach to interbank contagion risk in South Africa," Working Papers 11052, South African Reserve Bank.
    2. Conrad F. J. Beyers & Allan Freitas & Kojo A. Essel-Mensah & Reyno Seymore & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2020. "A computable general equilibrium model for banking sector risk assessment in South Africa," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 195-218, June.

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