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The Dilemma of Choosing Talent: Michael Jordans are Hard to Find

  • Peter A. Groothuis
  • Richard Hill
  • Timothy Perri

This paper explores the dilemma of choosing talent using NBA data from 1987-2003. We find that there is much uncertainty in selecting talent. If superstars are found they are usually identified early, however, more false positive exist than correct decisions with high draft picks. Our results suggest that the dilemma of choosing talent is not so much a winner’s curse but more like a purchase of a lottery ticket. Most times you lose but if you are going to win you must buy one.

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File URL: http://econ.appstate.edu/RePEc/pdf/wp0701.pdf
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Paper provided by Department of Economics, Appalachian State University in its series Working Papers with number 07-01.

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Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:apl:wpaper:07-01
Contact details of provider: Postal: Thelma C. Raley Hall, Boone, North Carolina 28608
Phone: 828-262-2148
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Web page: http://www.business.appstate.edu/departments/economics/

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  1. Pepall, Lynne M & Richards, Daniel J, 2001. "Reach for the Stars: A Strategic Bidding Game," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 68(272), pages 489-504, November.
  2. Breusch, T.S. & Pagan, A.R., . "The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics," CORE Discussion Papers RP -412, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  3. Rosen, Sherwin, 1981. "The Economics of Superstars," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 845-58, December.
  4. Peter Groothuis & Richard Hill & Timothy Perri, 2004. "Early Entry in the NBA Draft: The Influence of Unraveling, Human Capital and Option Value," Working Papers 04-05, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University, revised 2005.
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