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The dilemma of choosing talent: Michael Jordans are hard to find

  • Peter Groothuis
  • James Richard Hill
  • Timothy Perri

This article explores the dilemma of choosing talent using NBA data from 1987 to 2003. We find there is much uncertainty in selecting talent. If superstars are found, they are usually identified early. However, more false positives exist than correct decisions with high draft picks. Our results suggest the dilemma of choosing talent is not so much a winner's curse but more like a purchase of a lottery ticket. Most times you lose, but, if you are going to win, you must buy a ticket.

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File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840701564459
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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 41 (2009)
Issue (Month): 25 ()
Pages: 3193-3198

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:41:y:2009:i:25:p:3193-3198
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  1. Breusch, T S & Pagan, A R, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 239-53, January.
  2. Pepall, Lynne M & Richards, Daniel J, 2001. "Reach for the Stars: A Strategic Bidding Game," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 68(272), pages 489-504, November.
  3. Rosen, Sherwin, 1981. "The Economics of Superstars," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 845-58, December.
  4. Peter Groothuis & Richard Hill & Timothy Perri, 2004. "Early Entry in the NBA Draft: The Influence of Unraveling, Human Capital and Option Value," Working Papers 04-05, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University, revised 2005.
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