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Robust Optimal Macroprudential Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Federico Bennett

    (Duke University)

  • Giselle Montamat

    (Uber)

  • Francisco Roch

    (IMF)

Abstract

We consider how fear of model misspecification on the part of the planner and/or the households affects welfare gains from optimal macroprudential taxes in an economy with occasionally binding collateral constraints as in Bianchi (2011). In this setup, the decentralized equilibrium may differ from the social planner’s equilibrium both because of the pecuniary externalities associated with the collateral constraint and because of the paternalistic imposition of the planner’s beliefs when designing policy. When robust agents have doubts about the model, they create endogenous worst-case beliefs by assigning a high probability to low-utility events. The ratio of worst-case beliefs of the planner over the household’s captures the degree of paternalism. We show that this novel channel could render the directions of welfare gains from a policy intervention ambiguous. However, our quantitative results suggest that doubts about the model need to be large in order to make a “laissez-faire regime” better than an intervention regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Federico Bennett & Giselle Montamat & Francisco Roch, 2022. "Robust Optimal Macroprudential Policy," Working Papers 141, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
  • Handle: RePEc:aoz:wpaper:141
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    File URL: https://rednie.eco.unc.edu.ar/files/DT/141.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Cosmin L. Ilut & Martin Schneider, 2022. "Modeling Uncertainty as Ambiguity: a Review," NBER Working Papers 29915, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Robust Control; Model Uncertainty; Optimal Taxation; Sudden Stops; Financial Crises;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D62 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Externalities
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation

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