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Câmbio, Inflação E Juros Na Transição Do Regime Cambial Brasileiro: Uma Análise De Vetores Auto-Regressivos E Causalidade


  • Carlos de Almeida Cardoso
  • Flávio Vilela Vieira


The present work examines the exchange regime transition in Brazil (1994 to 2003) based on the hypothesis of the existence of changes in the interaction of exchange rate, interest rates and inflation. It also examines to what extent one can say that there was a fear of floating. The results indicate that there was a significant change in the dynamic of such variables when moving from a more rigid to a more flexible regime, supporting our original hypothesis. Regarding the fear of floating, the results for Brazil can be seen as inconclusive since from one point of view they do not follow the same pattern of other experiences with exchange regime transition especially with respect to credibility problems where Brazil does not seem to face. On the other hand the results are similar to other experiences with respect to the relevance of the exchange rate as a fundamental instrument of macroeconomic policy since it reveals close links with price (inflation) behavior and interest rate. The fear of floating seems to make sense when we considered the variance decomposition and the impulse-response function analysis using the wholesale price index regardless of the exchange rate regime, even though the result is more pronounced for the floating period and when using the wholesale price index.

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  • Carlos de Almeida Cardoso & Flávio Vilela Vieira, 2004. "Câmbio, Inflação E Juros Na Transição Do Regime Cambial Brasileiro: Uma Análise De Vetores Auto-Regressivos E Causalidade," Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 080, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  • Handle: RePEc:anp:en2004:080

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    1. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1999. "Inflation stabilization and bop crises in developing countries," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 24, pages 1531-1614 Elsevier.
    2. Killeen, William P. & Lyons, Richard K. & Moore, Michael J., 2006. "Fixed versus flexible: Lessons from EMS order flow," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 551-579, June.
    3. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-228, August.
    4. Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos, 2001. "Inflation Targeting in an Open Financially Integrated Emerging Economy: the case of Brazil," Working Papers Series 26, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    5. Francisco Eduardo Pires de Souza & Cecília Rutkoski Hoff, 2003. "O Regime Cambial Brasileiro: Flutuação Genuína ou Medo de Flutuação?," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31th Brazilian Economics Meeting] c60, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
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    11. Calvo, Guillermo A & Vegh, Carlos A, 1995. "Fighting Inflation with High Interest Rates: The Small Open Economy Case under Flexible Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 49-66, February.
    12. Joaquim Pinto de Andrade & José Angelo C. A. Divino, 2015. "Optimal Rules for Monetary Policy in Brazil," Discussion Papers 0101, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics


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