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Kredi Hacmi Ile Cari Acik Arasindaki Iliski: Turkiye Icin Dinamik Bir Analiz

Author

Listed:
  • Pinar Karahan

    () (Anadolu University, Department of Economics)

  • Nilgun Caglairmak Uslu

    (Anadolu University, Department of Economics)

Abstract

Turkiye'nin en onemli makroekonomik sorunlarindan biri, sureklilik arz eden cari islemler acigidir. Turkiye ekonomisinde kredi hacmi ozellikle kuresel finans krizinden sonra cari islemler aciginin temel belirleyicileri arasinda gosterilmektedir. TCMB, 2008 yili kuresel finans krizi sonrasi yasanan hizli kredi genislemesinin cari dengeyi olumsuz yonde etkilemesine karsilik, kredi genislemesini yavaslatarak finansal istikrarin saglanmasina yonelik politika uygulamaya baslamistir. Bu calismada, Turkiye'deki mevduat bankalarinin ozel sektore kullandirdigi krediler ile cari islemler acigi arasindaki iliski, 2005:Q1-2015:Q3 donemi verileri kullanilarak, Sinir testi yaklasimi, ARDL modeli ve Kalman Filtresi yaklasimiyla analiz edilmistir. Sinir testi sonuclari cari islemler acigi ile kredi hacmi arasinda esbutunlesme iliskisinin oldugunu; ARDL modeli sonuclari kredi hacminin cari islemler acigini kisa ve uzun donemde pozitif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamli etkiledigini gostermistir. Kalman Filtresi modeli sonuclari ise kredi hacminin cari islemler acigi uzerindeki etkisinin kuresel finans krizi doneminde azaldigini ortaya koymustur.

Suggested Citation

  • Pinar Karahan & Nilgun Caglairmak Uslu, 2016. "Kredi Hacmi Ile Cari Acik Arasindaki Iliski: Turkiye Icin Dinamik Bir Analiz," EconWorld Working Papers 16007, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, revised Oct 2016.
  • Handle: RePEc:ana:wpaper:16007
    DOI: 10.22440/EconWorld.WP.2016.007
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    File URL: https://wp.econworld.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/WP2016007.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema, 2005. "Estimating income and price elasticities of imports for Fiji in a cointegration framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 423-438, May.
    2. Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2014. "Real estate valuation, current account and credit growth patterns, before and after the 2008–9 crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 249-270.
    3. Zeynel Harun Aliogullari & Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Yunus Emrah Bulut & Mustafa Kilinc, 2015. "Turkiye’de Tuketici ve Ticari Kredilerin Cari Acikla Iliskisi," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1519, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    4. Fatih MANGIR & Hasan Murat ERTUĞRUL, 2012. "Sermaye hareketliliği, tasarruf ve yatırım ilişkisi:Türkiye örneği," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 27(317), pages 61-87.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cari Acik; Kredi Hacmi; Sinir Testi; Kalman Filtresi;

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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