The environmental consequences of a weakening US-China crop trade relationship

Consideration of tariffs on China’s imports of US agricultural products have focused on economic impacts, while environmental consequences have received less attention. Tariffs could alter farming practices in both countries and spill over to the rest of the world, resulting in unexpected environmental consequences through crop portfolio changes. Using a global computable general equilibrium model, we show here that China’s tariffs pose unexpected increases in nitrogen and phosphorus pollution and water extraction in the US, as farmers shift from soybeans to more pollution-causing crops, costing the US approximately an additional $88~608 million for nitrogen mitigation. China’s diverted demands to South America would reduce South American nutrient pollution and water uses, although it may add additional pressures on deforestation. On a global scale, trade policies could help to reduce nutrient pollution and water source depletion by promoting crop production where it is most efficient in nutrient and water use.