IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/pugtwp/332840.html

Economic Insights into Telecoupling: Lessons from China's Soybean Boom

Author

Listed:
  • Yao, Guolin
  • Hertel, Thomas
  • Taheripour, Farzad

Abstract

China's soybean demand boom in the past two decades has been very dramatic. It involves socioeconomic and environmental interactions of multi-coupled systems. Economic growth and restructuring of feed industry intensified China's soybean meal demands. Brazil, as well as Argentina and the US, stepped in to satisfy this increased demand. In the case of Brazil, rapid technical change, coupled with expansion in cultivated area, played a key role in meeting the increased soybean demand in China. The goal of this research to is to identify the key economic drivers of this historical growth in soybean trade, output and land use in Brazil, China, and the US over the period of 2004-2011 and quantify their contributions using the GTAP-BIO model. This period provides a very interesting laboratory in which to test the validity of this model, as well as to decompose the diverse drivers of growth in soybean trade. With a validated historical model in place, we plan to project future soybean production and trade changes and investigate the role which China's agricultural policy and genetically-modified (GM) technology have played in the historical development of soybean trade through counterfactual simulations.

Suggested Citation

  • Yao, Guolin & Hertel, Thomas & Taheripour, Farzad, 2017. "Economic Insights into Telecoupling: Lessons from China's Soybean Boom," Conference papers 332840, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332840
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/332840/files/8763.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lee, Huey-Lin & Hertel, Thomas W. & Sohngen, Brent & Ramankutty, Navin, 2005. "Towards An Integrated Land Use Database for Assessing the Potential for Greenhouse Gas Mitigation," Technical Papers 283423, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Sutton, Michael & Klein, Nicole & Taylor, Gary, 2005. "A Comparative Analysis of Soybean Production Between the United States, Brazil, and Argentina," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, vol. 2005, pages 1-9.
    3. W. Jill Harrison & J. Mark Horridge & K.R. Pearson, 2000. "Decomposing Simulation Results with Respect to Exogenous Shocks," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 15(3), pages 227-249, June.
    4. Lee, Tani & Tran, Anh & Hansen, James & Ash, Mark, 2016. "Major Factors Affecting Global Soybean and Products Trade Projections," Amber Waves:The Economics of Food, Farming, Natural Resources, and Rural America, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, issue 04, pages 1-1, May.
    5. Keeney, Roman & Thomas Hertel, 2005. "GTAP-AGR : A Framework for Assessing the Implications of Multilateral Changes in Agricultural Policies," GTAP Technical Papers 1869, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    6. Zhao, Yaohui, 1999. "Labor Migration and Earnings Differences: The Case of Rural China," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 47(4), pages 767-782, July.
    7. Qianrong Wu & Wendong Zhang, 2016. "Of Maize and Markets: China's New Corn Policy," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications apr-fall-2016-4, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    8. Muhammad, Andrew & Meade, Birgit Gisela Saager & Regmi, Anita & Seale, James L., 2011. "International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns: An Update Using 2005 International Comparison Program Data," Technical Bulletins 120252, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    9. Muhammad, Andrew & Meade, Birgit Gisela Saager, 2011. "International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns: An Update Using 2005 International Comparison Program Data," Technical Bulletins 120252, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yao, Guolin & Hertel, Thomas W. & Taheripour, Farzad, "undated". "Understanding China's Soybean Boom from Historical Validation," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258373, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Mun Ho & Wolfgang Britz & Ruth Delzeit & Florian Leblanc & Roberto Roson & Franziska Schuenemann & Matthias Weitzel, 2020. "Modelling Consumption and Constructing Long-Term Baselines in Final Demand," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 63-108, June.
    3. Gouel, Christophe & Laborde, David, 2021. "The crucial role of domestic and international market-mediated adaptation to climate change," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    4. Hertel, Thomas W. & Tyner, Wallace E. & Birur, Dileep K., 2008. "Biofuels for all? Understanding the Global Impacts of Multinational Mandates," Conference papers 331729, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    5. Hertel, Thomas W. & Baldos, Uris Lantz C., 2013. "Looking back to move forward: Evaluating global agricultural land use in integrated assessment models," Conference papers 332383, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    6. Seale, James L. & Solano, Alexis A., 2012. "The changing demand for energy in rich and poor countries over 25years," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1834-1844.
    7. Zereyesus, Yacob Abrehe & Xia, Tian & Nava, Noé J. & Li, Xianghong & Cardell, Lila, 2025. "International Income and Price Elasticity Estimates: An Update," Technical Bulletins 358604, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    8. Gerval, Adam & Hansen, James, "undated". "COVID-19 Working Paper: Single Commodity Export Dependence and the Impacts of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa," USDA Miscellaneous 323866, United States Department of Agriculture.
    9. Hertel, By Thomas W. & Baldos, Uris L.C. & Fuglie, Keith O., 2020. "Trade in technology: A potential solution to the food security challenges of the 21st century," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    10. Erwin Corong & Thomas Hertel & Robert McDougall & Marinos Tsigas & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2017. "The Standard GTAP Model, version 7," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 2(1), pages 1-119, June.
    11. Kira Lancker & Julia Bronnmann, 2022. "Substitution Preferences for Fish in Senegal," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 82(4), pages 1015-1045, August.
    12. Chad E. Hart & John C. Beghin, 2004. "Rethinking Agricultural Domestic Support under the World Trade Organization," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 04-bp43, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    13. Nelson Villoria & Rachael Garrett & Florian Gollnow & Kimberly Carlson, 2022. "Leakage does not fully offset soy supply-chain efforts to reduce deforestation in Brazil," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    14. Susan Olivia & John Gibson, 2013. "Using Engel curves to measure CPI bias for Indonesia," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(1), pages 85-101, April.
    15. Sands, Ronald D. & Malcolm, Scott A. & Suttles, Shellye A. & Marshall, Elizabeth, 2017. "Dedicated Energy Crops and Competition for Agricultural Land," Economic Research Report 252445, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    16. Dorfleitner, Gregor & Kreuzer, Christian & Sparrer, Christian, 2022. "To sin in secret is no sin at all: On the linkage of policy, society, culture, and firm characteristics with corporate scandals," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 762-784.
    17. Andre Deppermann & Petr Havlík & Hugo Valin & Esther Boere & Mario Herrero & Joost Vervoort & Erik Mathijs, 2018. "The market impacts of shortening feed supply chains in Europe," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 10(6), pages 1401-1410, December.
    18. Cattaneo, Andrea & Federighi, Giovanni & Vaz, Sara, 2021. "The environmental impact of reducing food loss and waste: A critical assessment," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    19. Wolfgang Britz & Roberto Roson, 2019. "G-RDEM: A GTAP-Based Recursive Dynamic CGE Model for Long-Term Baseline Generation and Analysis," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 4(1), pages 50-96, June.
    20. Zhou, De & Yu, Xiaohua & Abler, David & Chen, Danhong, 2020. "Projecting meat and cereals demand for China based on a meta-analysis of income elasticities," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332840. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gtpurus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.