Will Madagascar benefit from the South African market opening to SADC goods ?

After hesitating during more than a decade, Madagascar which is already a member of COMESA (Common Market of Eastern and Southern Africa) and is negotiating the new Economic Partnership Agreement between ACP and EU as a member of ESA (Eastern and Southern Africa) group decides to join SADC (Southern African Development Community). By doing that, Madagascar expect to enhance its trade flows with SADC country in general and with South Africa in particular. But will Madagascar really gain from the South African market opening to SADC goods ? For analyzing this issue, two kinds of modelling approaches are used. First, we use GTAP modelling to verify if each sub-division of SADC region can benefit from FTA within this community, and to check with which economic activity will gain the sub-region including Madagascar from the FTA. Then we find that FTA boosts export of the Rest of SADC to South Africa, and every sub-region will record a positive change of welfare even if safeguard measurement is implemented for several commodities. In second stage, we focus on effect of tariff removal of South Africa to all goods from other SADC members. In this case, we use WITS/TRAINS software with its possibility of getting information on 6-digit Harmonized System description of goods. Despite the fact that the trade liberalisation reveal to be a propoor strategy for the Rest of SADC (excluding SACU), it looks difficult to state whether Madagascar will benefit or not from the FTA within SADC. One wonders if Madagascar is not paying now its weak linkages to Southern Africa especially with the Republic of South Africa, as competition from some SADC members is strong.