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Regional wheat price effects of extreme weather events and wheat export controls in Russia and Ukraine

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  • Götz, Linde
  • Djuric, Ivan
  • Nivievskyi, Oleg

Abstract

This paper further builds on the price transmission model framework of existing studies to identify domestic wheat price effects of wheat export controls. We explicitly take the fact into account that a harvest failure causes domestic price effects as well. Moreover, the analysis at the regional level provides further evidence of the functioning of export controls in a large country. Results suggest a pronounced regional heterogeneity in the strength of domestic price effects of the 2010/11 export ban in Russia. The wheat price dampening effects amount to up to 67 % and are strongest in the major wheat exporting region with direct access to the world market. This effect is transmitted to other regions by increased and reversed interregional trade flows. Contrasting, regional variation of export controls´ domestic price effects in Ukraine is rather small.

Suggested Citation

  • Götz, Linde & Djuric, Ivan & Nivievskyi, Oleg, 2016. "Regional wheat price effects of extreme weather events and wheat export controls in Russia and Ukraine," IAMO Discussion Papers 235157, Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iamodp:235157
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.235157
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    1. Götz, Linde & Djuric, Ivan & Nivievskyi, Oleg, 2016. "Regional wheat price effects of extreme weather events and wheat export controls in Russia and Ukraine," IAMO Discussion Papers 235157, Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Food Security and Poverty; International Relations/Trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

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