IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

World Cereals Markets Under Alternative Common Agricultural Policy Reforms


  • Benjamin, Catherine
  • Gueguen, Chantal
  • Houee, Magalie


Previous quantitative assessments of likely impacts of recent reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy (in particular the Agenda 2000) differ across empirical studies. Differences are mainly due to the ways the policy instruments are taken into account (explicit modeling or implicit modeling i.e. using ad-valorem equivalents). The aim of this paper is to assess empirically the impacts of recent reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy and the consequences of the Mid-Term proposals on world cereals markets. We develop an econometric, dynamic, multi-product, partial equilibrium commodity model that focuses on arable crops. Major exporters and major importers are modeled separately, other countries being included in a "rest of the world" category. For the countries or regions explicitly integrated the model estimates supply, demand and trade. The model we develop has two important features: i) the parameters estimated in the behavioral equations (supply and demand) satisfy regularity conditions and ii) the agricultural policy instruments (in particular CAP instruments) are modeled in an explicit way. In the empirical section, attention focuses on the world cereals market. We provide a market outlook through the year 2009 for three different scenarios: baseline projections and two scenarios based on different assumptions regarding the evolution of the Common Agricultural Policy (the Mid-Term Review scenario and the decoupling scenario). Estimated effects of the mid-term scenario on EU crop prices depend on the relationship between EU and world market prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin, Catherine & Gueguen, Chantal & Houee, Magalie, 2003. "World Cereals Markets Under Alternative Common Agricultural Policy Reforms," 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa 25913, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae03:25913

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Bruce A. Babcock & John C. Beghin & Samarendu Mohanty & Frank H. Fuller & Jacinto F. Fabiosa & Sudhir Chaudhary & Phillip Kaus & Cheng Fang & Chad E. Hart & Karen Kovarik, 1999. "Analysis of the Berlin Accord Reforms of the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 99-bp24, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    2. Coyle, Barry T., 1993. "On Modeling Systems Of Crop Acreage Demands," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 18(01), July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Listorti, Giulia & Esposti, Roberto, 2008. "Making the world market price endogenous within the AGMEMOD modelling framework: an econometric solution," 107th Seminar, January 30-February 1, 2008, Sevilla, Spain 6659, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Esposti, Roberto & Lobianco, Antonello, 2005. "Modelling the Impact of 2003 CAP Reform on Crop Production: The case of Durum Wheat in Italy," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 6(1), January.

    More about this item


    Agricultural and Food Policy;


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:iaae03:25913. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.