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Accession of the East-European countries to the European Union and the impacts on arable world and European markets : a WEMAC analysis
[L'adhésion des nouveaux membres et les impacts sur les marchés européens et mondiaux des grandes cultures : une analyse WEMAC]

Author

Listed:
  • Catherine C. Benjamin

    (ESR - Unité de recherche d'Économie et Sociologie Rurales - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique)

  • Magalie Houée Bigot

    (ESR - Unité de recherche d'Économie et Sociologie Rurales - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique)

  • Isabelle Piot-Lepetit

    (ESR - Unité de recherche d'Économie et Sociologie Rurales - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, EAAE - European Association of Agricultural Economists)

Abstract

La contribution propose une évaluation des impacts de l'adhésion des pays de l'Europe de l'Est à l'Union européenne à l'aide d'une analyse quantitative. L'étude analyse les effets de la dernière réforme de la PAC et de l'élargissement à la fois sur les marchés européens et mondiaux des grandes cultures. L'utilisation d'un modèle mondial, multi-marchés, des grandes cultures permet de fournir des projections jusque 2010, ces projections incluant les récentes réformes de la PAC. Trois scenarii sont étudiés et comparés. Dans le premier scénario, la situation de 2002 est supposée inchangée jusque 2010 et repose, par conséquent, sur une union à 15 membres. Le deuxième scénario considère les effets de la réforme de la PAC de 2003 et le troisième représente les effets de la réforme de la PAC de 2003 et l'élargissement de l'Union européenne à 25 membres. Dans la plupart des cas, les impacts de la réforme et de l'élargissement sont les mêmes, mais avec une différence au niveau de l'ampleur des changements, l'élargissement affecte davantage les marchés mondiaux que la réforme de la PAC. Les impacts de l'élargissement à 25 membres sont en général plus forts que ceux de la réforme de la PAC pour l'Union européenne à 15.

Suggested Citation

  • Catherine C. Benjamin & Magalie Houée Bigot & Isabelle Piot-Lepetit, 2005. "Accession of the East-European countries to the European Union and the impacts on arable world and European markets : a WEMAC analysis [L'adhésion des nouveaux membres et les impacts sur les marché," Post-Print hal-02832416, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02832416
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02832416
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Meilke, Karl D. & McClatchy, Don & Gorter, Harry de, 1996. "Challenges in quantitative economic analysis in support of multilateral trade negotiations," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 185-200, August.
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    6. Hans van Meijl & Frank van Tongeren, 2002. "The Agenda 2000 CAP reform, world prices and GATT--WTO export constraints," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 29(4), pages 445-470, December.
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