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SCENAR2020: Future of European Agriculture under Different Policy Options, the economic modelling framework

Author

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  • Banse, Martin
  • Helming, John F.M.
  • van Meijl, Hans
  • Nowicki, Peter

Abstract

This paper identifies major future trends and driving factors and perspectives and challenges resulting from them for European agriculture and food sectors until the year 2020. The focus of the paper is an analysis of key driving forces and the provision of a well developed reference scenario under the assumption of continued CAP reform and taking into account the framework discussions in the Doha Development Round. To assess the impact of policies the paper also examines a liberalisation (no support) and regionalisation (max support) scenario. In terms of policy options the paper shows that structural change process in agriculture is a long-term process that continues with or without policy changes. EU is facing an increasing diversity of structure and structural adjustment. The livestock sector faces important challenges and restructuring. Alternative policy settings may not produce very different effect on the overall production. However, the regional impact may prove to be more significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Banse, Martin & Helming, John F.M. & van Meijl, Hans & Nowicki, Peter, 2008. "SCENAR2020: Future of European Agriculture under Different Policy Options, the economic modelling framework," 107th Seminar, January 30-February 1, 2008, Sevilla, Spain 6593, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaa107:6593
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.6593
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hans van Meijl & Frank van Tongeren, 2002. "The Agenda 2000 CAP reform, world prices and GATT--WTO export constraints," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 29(4), pages 445-470, December.
    2. Huang, Hsin & van Tongeren, Frank & Dewbre, Joe Dewbre, Joe & van Meijl, Hans, 2004. "A New Representation of Agricultural Production Technology in GTAP," Conference papers 330233, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
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    Cited by:

    1. Antimiani, Alessandro & Mitaritonna, Cristina & Salvatici, Luca & Santuccio, Federica, 2008. "Regionalism versus Multilateralism: assessing the impact of free trade agreements between EU and Asian Countries," Conference papers 331687, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

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