Evaluating Different Growth Scenarios for Organic Farming Using Bayesian Techniques
Different views exist on the future development of organic agriculture. The Dutch government believes that in 2010 10% of the farm land will be used for organic farming. Others have a more radical view: due to increasing emphasis on sustainable production in the end all farming will be organic. Others believe in a more pessimistic scenario in which the recent growth in organic was just a temporary upswing and that the share of organic farmers already reached its maximum. In this paper different potential scenarios for the further growth of organic farming are evaluated using Bayesian techniques. A nonlinear logistic growth model explaining the share of organic farms is estimated using available historical data for Dutch agriculture. Various scenarios imply different prior values for the parameters. Because of the non-linear model specification a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is used to simulate the posterior densities of the model parameters. Finally, using Bayesian model comparison techniques probabilities can be attached to the different scenarios. The proposed methodology is a promising tool for analysing technology diffusion in general when different scenarios for diffusion are possible and limited data is available.
|Date of creation:||2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.eaae.orgEmail: |
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bewley, Ronald & Fiebig, Denzil G., 1988. "A flexible logistic growth model with applications in telecommunications," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 177-192.
- Meade, Nigel & Islam, Towhidul, 1995. "Forecasting with growth curves: An empirical comparison," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 199-215, June.
- John Foster & Phillip Wild, 1999. "Detecting self-organisational change in economic processes exhibiting logistic growth," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 109-133.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:eaae08:44211. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.