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Detecting self-organisational change in economic processes exhibiting logistic growth

Author

Listed:
  • John Foster

    (Department of Economics, University of Queensland, Brisbane QLD 4072, Australia)

  • Phillip Wild

    (The School of Economic Studies, University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL, UK)

Abstract

This paper offers an econometric methodology for the detection of self-organisational change (defined in terms of the presence of time irreversibility, structural change and fundamental uncertainty) in economic processes that follow logistic diffusion growth paths in historical time. The approach we adopted is built upon recent developments in `moving window' spectral methods which are applied to the scaled residuals generated by estimated logistic diffusion models. We illustrate the use of such methods by examining the case of a financial instrument, namely, the Australian Building Society Deposit, which experienced logistic growth in its market share until bank deregulation was enacted in the 1980s. We show that there is clear evidence that self-organisational change is present over the historical period considered.

Suggested Citation

  • John Foster & Phillip Wild, 1999. "Detecting self-organisational change in economic processes exhibiting logistic growth," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 109-133.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:joevec:v:9:y:1999:i:1:p:109-133
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. John Foster, 2016. "The Australian growth miracle: an evolutionary macroeconomic explanation," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(3), pages 871-894.
    2. Hinich, Melvin J. & Foster, John & Wild, Phillip, 2006. "Structural change in macroeconomic time series: A complex systems perspective," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 136-150, March.
    3. J.S. Metcalfe, 2005. "Ed Mansfield and the Diffusion of Innovation: An Evolutionary Connection," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 30(2_2), pages 171-181, January.
    4. John Foster, 2014. "Energy, knowledge and economic growth," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 209-238, April.
    5. Gardebroek, Cornelis, 2008. "Evaluating Different Growth Scenarios for Organic Farming Using Bayesian Techniques," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44211, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Foster, John & Metcalfe, J. Stan, 2012. "Economic emergence: An evolutionary economic perspective," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 420-432.
    7. Prof John Foster, 2007. "A micro-meso-macro perspective on the methodology of evolutionary economics: integrating history, simulation and econometrics," Discussion Papers Series 343, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    8. John Foster, 2011. "Evolutionary macroeconomics: a research agenda," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 5-28, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Discontinuity ; Evolution ; Logistic diffusion ; Non-linearity ; Non-stationarity ; Self-organisation ; Spectral methods;

    JEL classification:

    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations
    • N2 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions

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