Comparative Performance of Selected Mathematical Programming Models
This study compares the predictive performance of several mathematical programming models. Using the cropping patterns, yields and crop gross margins of eighteen farms over a period of five years we compare the models' optimum solutions with observed crop distributions after the Reform of the EU Common Agricultural Policy of 1992. The results show that the best prediction corresponds to a model that includes expected profit and a qualitative measure of crop riskiness. The results suggest that, in order to obtain reliable predictions, the modelling of farmers' responses to policy changes must consider the risk associated with any given cropping pattern. Finally, we test the ability of the proposed model to reproduce the farmers' observed behaviour with equally good performance under conditions of limited data availability.
|Date of creation:||2002|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.eaae.org|
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- Josling, Tim, 1994. "The Reformed CAP and the Industrial World," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 21(3-4), pages 513-27.
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- H. M. G. Herath & J. Brian Hardaker & Jock R. Anderson, 1982. "Choice of Varieties by Sri Lanka Rice Farmers: Comparing Alternative Decision Models," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 64(1), pages 87-93.
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- Judez, L. & Chaya, C. & Martinez, S. & Gonzalez, A. A., 2001. "Effects of the measures envisaged in "Agenda 2000" on arable crop producers and beef and veal producers: an application of Positive Mathematical Programming to representative farms of a Span," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 121-138, February.
- Sumpsi, JoseMaria & Amador, Francisco & Romero, Carlos, 1997. "On farmers' objectives: A multi-criteria approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 64-71, January.
- Atwood, Joseph A. & Held, Larry J. & Helmers, Glenn A. & Watts, Myles J., 1986. "Performance Of Risk-Income Models Outside The Original Data Set," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 18(02), December.
- Tamiz, Mehrdad & Jones, Dylan & Romero, Carlos, 1998. "Goal programming for decision making: An overview of the current state-of-the-art," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 569-581, December.
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