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Performance Of Risk-Income Models Outside The Original Data Set

Author

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  • Atwood, Joseph A.
  • Held, Larry J.
  • Helmers, Glenn A.
  • Watts, Myles J.

Abstract

Selected risk programming solutions (i.e., profit maximization, Target-MOTAD, and MOTAD) are tested in an economic environment outside the data set from which they were developed. Specifically, solutions are derived from either a longer 10-year (1965-74) or shorter 6-year estimation period (1969-74), and then, they are tested for consistent risk-income characteristics over a later 10-year period (1975-84). Risk solutions estimated from earlier periods perform well in the later test period in spite of different economic conditions between time periods. However, favorable performance may be related to the specific example used in this analysis. Further testing for other farm situations is needed before general conclusions can be reached.

Suggested Citation

  • Atwood, Joseph A. & Held, Larry J. & Helmers, Glenn A. & Watts, Myles J., 1986. "Performance Of Risk-Income Models Outside The Original Data Set," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 18(2), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:sojoae:29775
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.29775
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lars Brink & Bruce McCarl, 1978. "The Tradeoff between Expected Return and Risk Among Cornbelt Farmers," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 60(2), pages 259-263.
    2. William Lin & G. W. Dean & C. V. Moore, 1974. "An Empirical Test of Utility vs. Profit Maximization in Agricultural Production," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 56(3), pages 497-508.
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    Cited by:

    1. Arriaza Balmón, Manuel & Gomez-Limon, Jose Antonio, 2002. "Comparative Performance of Selected Mathematical Programming Models," 2002 International Congress, August 28-31, 2002, Zaragoza, Spain 24792, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Arriaza, M. & Gomez-Limon, J. A., 2003. "Comparative performance of selected mathematical programming models," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 155-171, August.

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    Keywords

    Risk and Uncertainty;

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