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Incorporating Uncertainty In The Analysis Of Optimal Beef-Forage Production Systems

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  • Rawlins, Richard B.
  • Bernardo, Daniel J.

Abstract

A risk programming model was developed to evaluate the tradeoffs between risk and expected returns in beef-forage production systems. The specification represents nutrient and intake considerations when allocating forage among cattle enterprises; it also incorporates the various sources of risk facing livestock producers. Efficient ranch organizations were derived for a representative eastern Oklahoma ranch using MOTAD and Target-MOTAD formulations. Diversification of forage enterprises, introduction of cow-calf enterprises, and retained ownership of weaned calves were identified as important responses to reductions in acceptable levels of risk. Results also indicated efficient ranch plans to be sensitive to the risk criteria and producer's willingness to accept risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Rawlins, Richard B. & Bernardo, Daniel J., 1991. "Incorporating Uncertainty In The Analysis Of Optimal Beef-Forage Production Systems," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 23(01), pages 1-13, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:sojoae:30308
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.30308
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lars Brink & Bruce McCarl, 1978. "The Tradeoff between Expected Return and Risk Among Cornbelt Farmers," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 60(2), pages 259-263.
    2. Teague, Paul W. & Lee, John G., 1988. "Risk Efficient Perennial Crop Selection: A Motad Approach To Citrus Production," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 20(2), pages 1-8, December.
    3. Tesfaye Gebremeskel & C. Richard Shumway, 1979. "Farm Planning and Calf Marketing Strategies for Risk Management: An Application of Linear Programming and Statistical Decision Theory," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 61(2), pages 363-370.
    4. Teague, Paul W. & Lee, John G., 1988. "Risk Efficient Perennial Crop Selection: A Motad Approach to Citrus Production," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(2), pages 145-152, December.
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    1. Popp, Michael P. & Faminow, Merle D. & Parsch, Lucas D., 1999. "Factors Affecting The Adoption Of Value-Added Production On Cow-Calf Farms," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 31(01), pages 1-12, April.
    2. Bechtel, Amos I. & Young, Douglas L., 1999. "The Importance Of Using Farm Level Risk Estimates In Crp Enrollment Decisions," 1999 Annual Meeting, July 11-14, 1999, Fargo, ND 35717, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    3. Doye, Damona & McGee, Adam & Lalman, David, 2017. "Economic analysis of forage systems designed to intensify beef production," 21st Congress, Edinburgh, Scotland, July 2-7, 2017 345789, International Farm Management Association.
    4. Popp, Michael P. & Faminow, Merle D. & Parsch, Lucas D., 1998. "Adoption Of Backgrounding On Cow-Calf Farms," 1998 Annual meeting, August 2-5, Salt Lake City, UT 20800, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    5. P. Havlík & F. Jacquet & J.M. Boisson & S. Hejduk & P. Veselý, 2006. "Mathematical programming models for agri-environmental policy analysis: A case study from the White Carpathians," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 52(2), pages 51-66.

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