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Agricultural Risk Analysis in the Fars Province of Iran: A Risk-Programming Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Kehkha, Ahmad Ali
  • Mohammadi, Gholamreza Soltani
  • Villano, Renato A.

Abstract

Mathematical programming methods are widely used for modelling farmers' decision-making and for economic analysis in agriculture. In this study, a MOTAD risk-programming model is applied to study the effects of risk on cropping pattern and farmers' income in Ramjerd and Sarpaniran districts near Marvdasht in the Fars Province of Iran. Primary data from 194 farmers randomly selected from 31 villages are used in this study. The results indicate that variability of crops gross margins or outcomes has a significant effect on cropping pattern but it varies over different farmers and regions with various conditions. Moreover, it was found that farm plans with more number of crops have a lower return but high degree of certainty. Based on this research, farmers' risk attitudes and expectations and using more sophisticated methods for generating time series data with dependency are some important issues which should be considered in the future studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Kehkha, Ahmad Ali & Mohammadi, Gholamreza Soltani & Villano, Renato A., 2005. "Agricultural Risk Analysis in the Fars Province of Iran: A Risk-Programming Approach," Working Papers 12897, University of New England, School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uneewp:12897
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.12897
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John M. Antle, 1983. "Incorporating Risk in Production Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 65(5), pages 1099-1106.
    2. Abenet Belete & John L. Dillon & Frank M. Anderson, 1993. "Efficiency of small‐scale farmers in Ethiopia: a case study in the Baso and Warana sub‐district," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 8(3), pages 199-209, March.
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    4. Bryan Schurle & Bernard L. Erven, 1979. "Sensitivity of Efficient Frontiers Developed for Farm Enterprise Choice Decisions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 61(3), pages 506-511.
    5. Antle, John M., 1983. "Incorporating Risk In Production Analysis," 1983 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 3, West Lafayette, Indiana 279106, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    6. Hardaker, J. Brian, 2000. "Some Issues in Dealing with Risk in Agriculture," Working Papers 12912, University of New England, School of Economics.
    7. Belete, Abenet & Dillon, John L. & Anderson, Frank M., 1993. "Efficiency of small-scale farmers in Ethiopia: a case study in the Baso and Warana sub-district," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 199-209, March.
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