IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/uneewp/12897.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Agricultural Risk Analysis in the Fars Province of Iran: A Risk-Programming Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Kehkha, Ahmad Ali
  • Mohammadi, Gholamreza Soltani
  • Villano, Renato A.

Abstract

Mathematical programming methods are widely used for modelling farmers' decision-making and for economic analysis in agriculture. In this study, a MOTAD risk-programming model is applied to study the effects of risk on cropping pattern and farmers' income in Ramjerd and Sarpaniran districts near Marvdasht in the Fars Province of Iran. Primary data from 194 farmers randomly selected from 31 villages are used in this study. The results indicate that variability of crops gross margins or outcomes has a significant effect on cropping pattern but it varies over different farmers and regions with various conditions. Moreover, it was found that farm plans with more number of crops have a lower return but high degree of certainty. Based on this research, farmers' risk attitudes and expectations and using more sophisticated methods for generating time series data with dependency are some important issues which should be considered in the future studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Kehkha, Ahmad Ali & Mohammadi, Gholamreza Soltani & Villano, Renato A., 2005. "Agricultural Risk Analysis in the Fars Province of Iran: A Risk-Programming Approach," Working Papers 12897, University of New England, School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uneewp:12897
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.12897
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/12897/files/wp050002.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.12897?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John M. Antle, 1983. "Incorporating Risk in Production Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 65(5), pages 1099-1106.
    2. Lars Brink & Bruce McCarl, 1978. "The Tradeoff between Expected Return and Risk Among Cornbelt Farmers," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 60(2), pages 259-263.
    3. Bryan Schurle & Bernard L. Erven, 1979. "Sensitivity of Efficient Frontiers Developed for Farm Enterprise Choice Decisions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 61(3), pages 506-511.
    4. Antle, John M., 1983. "Incorporating Risk In Production Analysis," 1983 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 3, West Lafayette, Indiana 279106, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    5. Hardaker, J. Brian, 2000. "Some Issues in Dealing with Risk in Agriculture," Working Papers 12912, University of New England, School of Economics.
    6. Abenet Belete & John L. Dillon & Frank M. Anderson, 1993. "Efficiency of small‐scale farmers in Ethiopia: a case study in the Baso and Warana sub‐district," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 8(3), pages 199-209, March.
    7. Belete, Abenet & Dillon, John L. & Anderson, Frank M., 1993. "Efficiency of small-scale farmers in Ethiopia: a case study in the Baso and Warana sub-district," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 199-209, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lokonon, Boris Odilon & Savadogo, Kimseyinga & Mbaye, Ahmadou, 2015. "Assessing the impacts of climate shocks on farm performance and adaptation responses in the Niger basin of Benin," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 10(3), pages 1-16, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pannell, David J. & Malcolm, Bill & Kingwell, Ross S., 2000. "Are we risking too much? Perspectives on risk in farm modelling," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 69-78, June.
    2. Power, Brendan & Cacho, Oscar J, 2014. "Identifying risk-efficient strategies using stochastic frontier analysis and simulation: An application to irrigated cropping in Australia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 23-32.
    3. Musser, Wesley N. & McCarl, Bruce A. & Smith, G. Scott, 1986. "An Investigation Of The Relationship Between Constraint Omission And Risk Aversion In Firm Risk Programmng Models," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 18(2), pages 1-8, December.
    4. David J. Pannell, 1991. "Pests and pesticides, risk and risk aversion," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 5(4), pages 361-383, August.
    5. Rasmussen, Svend, 2003. "Criteria for optimal production under uncertainty. The state-contingent approach," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 47(4), pages 1-30.
    6. Lien, Gudbrand, 2002. "Non-parametric estimation of decision makers' risk aversion," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 75-83, May.
    7. Bechtel, Amos I. & Young, Douglas L., 1999. "The Importance Of Using Farm Level Risk Estimates In Crp Enrollment Decisions," 1999 Annual Meeting, July 11-14, 1999, Fargo, ND 35717, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    8. Mitchell, Paul David, 1999. "The theory and practice of green insurance: insurance to encourage the adoption of corn rootworm IPM," ISU General Staff Papers 1999010108000013154, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    9. Wall, Charles A. & Fisher, Brian S., 1988. "Supply Response and the Theory of Production and Profit Functions," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 56(03), pages 1-22, December.
    10. Babcock, Bruce A. & Shogren, Jason F., 1995. "The cost of agricultural production risk," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 141-150, August.
    11. van Zyl, J. & Groenewald, J. A., 1986. "A Comparison Of Certain Decision-Making Techniques Under Risk - An Empirical Investigation Of Maize Cultivar Selection," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 25(1), February.
    12. D. J. Pannell, 1990. "Responses To Risk In Weed Control Decisions Under Expected Profit Maximisation," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(3), pages 391-401, September.
    13. Marra, Michele C. & Carlson, Gerald A., 1985. "Models Of Technology Adoption Under Risk: Some Preliminary Results," Regional Research Projects > 1985: S-180 Annual Meeting, March 24-27, 1985, Charleston, South Carolina 271808, Regional Research Projects > S-180: An Economic Analysis of Risk Management Strategies for Agricultural Production Firms.
    14. Musser, Wesley N. & Shurley, W. D. & Williams, F. W., 1980. "An E-V Analysis of Beef Calf Backgrounding Systems in Georgia," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(2), pages 37-42, December.
    15. Radha R. Ashrit, 2023. "Estimation of technical efficiency of Indian farms for major crops during 2013–2014 and 2017–2018: a stochastic Frontier production approach," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 1-32, February.
    16. Jean‐Paul Chavas & Giorgia Rivieccio & Salvatore Di Falco & Giovanni De Luca & Fabian Capitanio, 2022. "Agricultural diversification, productivity, and food security across time and space," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(S1), pages 41-58, November.
    17. Adams, Richard M. & Menkhaus, Dale J. & Woolery, Bruce A., 1980. "Alternative Parameter Specification In E, V Analysis: Implications For Farm Level Decision Making," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 5(1), pages 1-8, July.
    18. McCarl, Bruce A., 1986. "Innovations In Programming Techniques For Risk Analysis," Regional Research Projects > 1986: S-180 Annual Meeting, March 23-26, 1986, Tampa, Florida 271825, Regional Research Projects > S-180: An Economic Analysis of Risk Management Strategies for Agricultural Production Firms.
    19. Stefan Baumgärtner & Martin F. Quaas, 2010. "Managing increasing environmental risks through agrobiodiversity and agrienvironmental policies," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(5), pages 483-496, September.
    20. Behrendt, Karl & Cacho, Oscar & Scott, James M. & Jones, Randall, 2016. "Using seasonal stochastic dynamic programming to identify optimal management decisions that achieve maximum economic sustainable yields from grasslands under climate risk," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 13-23.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk and Uncertainty;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:uneewp:12897. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deuneau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.